Last week, I did what-will-it-take projections for 1A, 2A, and 4A. I’m mostly pleased with how the projections held up against the progression of the marks over the weekend. There were, however, seven projected marks that have already been exceeded.
As someone who spent long portion of his life coaching athletes to make state-qualifying marks, I understand something of the pain of thinking you’ve laid down a big enough mark to make it only to discover you haven’t. It certainly was not my intent to offer up projections of what it will take (over a two-week span) that would fall within one week, but some of that is bound to happen.
Date: May 9 (this is important to cross-reference the #18 rankings shown below)
Making projections of what it will take is, in one sense, easier when there is only one week remaining in the qualifying season. You have more information to work from and fewer variables to weigh. But, in another sense, it’s more difficult. With only one week in the season to go, teams are forced into choices. You can’t pursue everything, so you have to pick and choose what you’ll pursue. So, some events will be largely ignored in the final week while other events will see intense competition. It’s very difficult to know in advance which events will fall into which piles. Nevertheless, I’ll take my best shots here.
Packing, below, is measured on a 1-3 scale, 1 being very light packing, 3 being fairly intense packing. Clearly, if you’re aiming for state, light packing is a more hopeful sign than tight packing.
My hope is that you’ll find these projections useful as you set your wills toward qualifying for state in the week ahead.
3A Boys 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Tariq Childress, Abraham Lincoln, 11.31; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 11.23
3A Girls 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Sierra Buzick, Jefferson Academy/Isabella Gehoski, Lutheran, 13.18; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 13.09
3A Boys 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Tariq Childress, Abraham Lincoln, 23.07; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 22.92
3A Girls 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Jackie Camunez, Coal Ridge, 27.29; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 27.15
3A Boys 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Jackson Fagerlin, Resurrection Christian/Cory Alexander, Elizabeth, 51.99; Packing: 1, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 51.75
3A Girls 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Emma Jones, Moffat County, 1:01.18; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:01.00
3A Boys 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Dylan Campbell, Coal Ridge, 2:03.01; Packing: 3, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 2:01.40
3A Girls 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Madison Brosig, Frontier Academy, 2:27.02; Packing: 3, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 2:23.50
3A Boys 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Cody Kelley, Manitou Springs, 4:39.83; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:36.25
3A Girls 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Evelyn Boyd, Holy Family, 5:25.26; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 5:22.80
3A Boys 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Tate Bothun, Berthoud, 10:10.98 Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10:00.00
3A Girls 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Madeline Castillo, Alamosa, 12:02.43; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 11:53.00
3A Boys 110 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Connor Henkel, Holy Family, 16.79; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 16.60
3A Girls 100 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Nicole Chavers, Holy Family, 17.48; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 17.30
3A Boys 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Brock Carpenter, TCA, 43.04; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 42.70
3A Girls 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Lauren Rohlwing, Elizabeth, 49.91; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 49.75
3A Boys 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Manitou Springs, 45.17; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 44.90
3A Girls 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Platte Valley, 52.81; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 52.55
3A Boys 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Montezuma-Cortez, 1:34.28; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:33.60
3A Girls 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Sierra, 1:52.45; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:51.75
3A Boys 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Moffat County, 3:38.34; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 3:35.50
3A Girls 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Northridge, 4:23.34; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:20.00
3A Boys 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Coal Ridge, 8:48.30; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 8:35.00
3A Girls 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Resurrection Christian, 11:00.16; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10:40.00
3A Girls 800 Meter Sprint Medley Relay
Current #18: Bennett, 1:58.30; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:57.60
John Maynard of Manitou Springs figures to be safely in the high jump field at 6-4. (PHOTO BY ALAN VERSAW)
3A Boys High Jump
Current #18: Joel Valencia, Rifle, 5-10.5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 6-0
3A Girls High Jump
Current #18: Angela Hindes, Gunnison, 4-10.5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4-11.5
3A Boys Pole Vault
Current #18: Three-way tie at 10-2; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10-6
3A Girls Pole Vault
Current #18: Massive tie at 8-0; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 8-2
3A Boys Long Jump
Current #18: Massive tie at 20-5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 20-8.5
3A Girls Long Jump
Current #18: Natalie Wesner, Aspen/Lottie Hollembeak, North Fork, 15-8.5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 15-11
3A Boys Triple Jump
Current #18: Grant Applebee, Resurrection Christian, 40-7.25; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 40-11
3A Girls Triple Jump
Current #18: Leia Ellenberger, North Fork, 32-4.75; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 33-1
3A Boys Shot Put
Current #18: Daniel Summeril, Woodland Park/Lucas Cass, Eaton, 41-4; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 41-10
3A Girls Shot Put
Current #18: Maggie Dooley, Holy Family, 32-5.5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 33-1
3A Boys Discus
Current #18: Jason Prado, Rifle, 122-8 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 130-0
3A Girls Discus
Current #18: Katelynn Merritt, Frontier Academy, 99-11 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 104-0
Note that on the discus marks, a lot depends on general wind conditions. If the right quartering winds show up at multiple venues, the projected marks listed here are probably not aggressive enough. If winds are consistently blowing at the backs of the throwers, we probably won’t reach the projected marks shown. Over the course of a season, these things will tend to even out. Over the course of a week of competition, not so much so.
Now, all that’s left for us is to wait and see what the week holds. Look for a comparable 5A article tomorrow.
