It’s time to start giving some thought to what it will take to find a place in the top 18 in each event. Qualifying for state, of course, isn’t necessarily the same as being in the top 18. But, unless you find yourself somewhere in the top 18, you have to rely on one or more scratches above you to advance into the state field. A lot of anxiety goes with that. And, by the way, you might as well figure that nobody ever scratches the 400, the 1600, the 100/110 hurdles, the pole vault, the shot put, or the discus.
What follows is an inexact science. Ultimately, all I’m doing is making educated guesses. But, for the coach and athlete who want a ballpark estimate on what it will take to land in the top 18 in a particular event, I can offer an opinion that’s reasonably well informed.
Date: May 4 (this is important to cross-reference the #18 rankings shown below)
Below, you will see listed each 4A event. Beneath each event name, I’ve listed the current #18 mark. Clearly, if you’re currently outside the top 18 and want to be inside, you have to beat that mark. But, it stands to reason you’ll eventually have to beat other marks as well. I also score how “packed” the field is behind the current #18 on a 1-3 scale. A loosely-packed field scores a 1. A tightly-packed field scores a 3. Anything in between scores a 2. A tightly-packed field is of more concern than a loosely-packed field if you’re on the outside trying to work your way in.
Finally, I lay down my own estimate of what it will take to have a top 18 mark on May 15 when coaches must designate their state meet entries (and hopefuls).
One of the things that concerns about in producing a list like this is that it becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy for a lot of athletes and we end up overshooting the top-18 cutoffs shown below. If everyone is aiming for the same point, it’s not too far-fetched to believe we’ll see a bump in the number of people hitting it. We’ll have to wait and see if that actually happens. Suffice it to say for now that there is potential for it happening.
I will eventually complete this exercise for all five classifications. 4A published yesterday. 1A is next on my schedule.
That should be adequate explanation. The events follow.
4A Boys 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Amaris Mora, Montrose/Blake Bennett, Erie, 11.32; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 11.20
4A Girls 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Ellie Sanders, Windsor, 13.00; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 12.86
4A Boys 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Ryan King, Pueblo West, 22.89; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 22.72
4A Girls 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Simocea Esquibel, Niwot, 27.02; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 26.65
4A Boys 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Kevin Leidig, Thompson Valley/Connor Prost, Steamboat Springs, 51.12; Packing: 1, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 50.65
4A Girls 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Grace Dow, Vista Peak, 1:01.18; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:00.40
4A Boys 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Jacoby Ennis, Centaurus, 1:59.49; Packing: 3, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:58.00
4A Girls 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Adele Havlick, Palmer, 2:21.14; Packing: 2, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 2:18.70
Knox Exton’s Cheyenne Mountain teammates are nicely represented in the 4A Boys distance rankings.
4A Boys 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Lucas Bossinger, Palmer Ridge/Cooper Morris, Pueblo West, 4:26.83; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:22.00
4A Girls 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Adele Havlick, Palmer, 5:18.08; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 5:12.50
4A Boys 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Damian Frausto, Durango, 9:48.54; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 9:34.00
4A Girls 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Lindsey Whitton, Battle Mountain, 11:36.85; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 11:27.50
4A Boys 110 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Isaac Renfro, Montrose, 16.16; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 16.00
4A Girls 100 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Alexandra Roberts, Discovery Canyon, 16.79; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 16.40
4A Boys 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Nabor Alvarez, Riverdale Ridge, 42.57; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 41.20
4A Girls 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Miah Suarez, Glenwood Springs, 49.00; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 48.25
4A Boys 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Erie 44.45; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 43.85
4A Girls 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Pueblo South, 51.62; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 51.05
4A Boys 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Pueblo County, 1:33.20; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:31.90
4A Girls 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Pueblo Central, 1:50.14; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:48.80
4A Boys 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Widefield, 3:34.82; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 3:31.50
4A Girls 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Eagle Valley, 4:17.47; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:13.50
4A Boys 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Steamboat Springs, 8:41.08; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 8:24.00
4A Girls 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Windsor, 10:45.52; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10:25.00
4A Girls 800 Meter Sprint Medley Relay
Current #18: Discovery Canyon, 1:55.55; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:54.00
4A Boys High Jump
Current #18: Massive tie at 6-1; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 6-2
4A Girls High Jump
Current #18: Three-way tie at 4-11; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 5-0.5
4A Boys Pole Vault
Current #18: Isaac San, Eagle Valley, 11-7; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 12-2
4A Girls Pole Vault
Current #18: Arabella Chen, Niwot, 8-8; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 9-1
4A Boys Long Jump
Current #18: Three-way tie at 20-9; Packing: 3+; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 21-4
4A Girls Long Jump
Current #18: Brianna Tira, Falcon, 16-4.25; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 16-8.5
4A Boys Triple Jump
Current #18: Travaris Coleman, Widefield, 41-6; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 42-7
4A Girls Triple Jump
Current #18: Sasha Rascon, Central Grand Junction, 33-7.75; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 34-4
4A Boys Shot Put
Current #18: Jaxxon Tosi, Montrose, 45-9; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 47-2
4A Girls Shot Put
Current #18: Paige Phelps, Thompson Valley, 33-8.75; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 34-6
4A Boys Discus
Current #18: Austin Schultz, Roosevelt, 136-11 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 145-0
4A Girls Discus
Current #18: Sway Yates, Pueblo West, 106-2 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 113-0
I’ll be correct (or very nearly so) on some of my estimates. For others, I won’t be as close. Regardless, it should be an intensely interesting last two weeks of the qualifying season. My best wishes to all those trying to nail down a state-qualifying slot.
