Over the last two weeks, I wrote five articles projecting what it would take to get to state. I’ve summarized below what the marks were, what I predicted, and what the actual outcomes were for the final state qualifying positions.
Due to scratches, some athletes were blessed enough to get into the state field despite not having a top-18 (or top-9, top-10, or top-12 in 1A) ranking. Over the years, however, I’ve been asked a lot of times if I could produce actual cutoff marks for qualifying for state in previous years. The tables below provide exactly that for 2022.
I don’t know that any of you care to check my projections against the actual marks, but—if you do—you can do that with the table below. If I’m writing about track and field this time next year, then I plan to take what I learned this year and see if it can yield some worthwhile improvements in the forecasts for next year.
As a general rule, the 100, 3200, 100/110 hurdles, and discus marks did not move as much as I projected. The 100s and 110H/100H had, apparently, already largely maxed out prior to last weekend. The 3200 was, frankly, lightly contested over the final weekend. And, surely not unrelated, not many meets provided great opportunities for top-end 3200s in the final days of qualifying. The winds that produce high-end discus marks didn’t show up last weekend. Winds, yes, the right winds, mostly no.
On the other hand, the 300 hurdles overshot my expectations in almost every instance.
Regardless, if what you really want to know is how the qualifying marks moved in the final 10 days (1A, 2A, and 4A) or in the final week (3A, 5A), then you have all that data available to you below.
Class 5A
| 1 Week Out | Predicted | Actual | |
| Boys 100 | 11.03 | 10.95 | 10.96 |
| Girls 100 | 12.52 | 12.45 | 12.52 |
| Boys 200 | 22.33 | 22.23 | 22.3 |
| Girls 200 | 26.01 | 25.87 | 25.87 |
| Boys 400 | 50.21 | 49.99 | 50 |
| Girls 400 | 59.64 | 59.3 | 59.13 |
| Boys 800 | 01:58.9 | 01:58.4 | 01:58.6 |
| Girls 800 | 02:19.0 | 02:18.2 | 02:18.3 |
| Boys 1600 | 04:27.2 | 04:24.2 | 04:24.4 |
| Girls 1600 | 05:10.2 | 05:08.1 | 05:07.8 |
| Boys 3200 | 09:44.9 | 09:38.0 | 09:43.7 |
| Girls 3200 | 11:22.6 | 11:18.0 | 11:22.6 |
| Boys 110H | 15.76 | 15.66 | 15.76 |
| Girls 100H | 16.3 | 16.22 | 16.25 |
| Boys 300H | 41.76 | 41.56 | 41.25 |
| Girls 300H | 48.56 | 48.22 | 47.8 |
| Boys 4×1 | 43.35 | 43.2 | 43.29 |
| Girls 4×1 | 50.9 | 50.75 | 50.51 |
| Boys 4×2 | 01:30.4 | 01:30.1 | 01:30.3 |
| Girls 4×2 | 01:47.6 | 01:47.1 | 01:46.6 |
| Boys 4×4 | 03:29.5 | 03:28.7 | 03:28.0 |
| Girls 4×4 | 04:12.8 | 04:11.3 | 04:08.1 |
| Boys 4×8 | 08:29.3 | 08:21.0 | 08:27.5 |
| Girls 4×8 | 09:59.3 | 09:51.0 | 09:55.9 |
| Girls SMR8 | 01:53.3 | 01:52.5 | 01:52.6 |
| Boys HJ | 6-0 | 6-1 | 6-0 |
| Girls HJ | 5-0 | 5-1 | 5-0 |
| Boys PV | 11-6 | 12-2 | 12-0 |
| Girls PV | 9-8 | 10-0 | 9-9 |
| Boys LJ | 21-7.75 | 21-11 | 21-7.75 |
| Girls LJ | 16-9.25 | 17-1 | 16-9.5 |
| Boys TJ | 42-5 | 43-1 | 42-6 |
| Girls TJ | 33-10.5 | 34-4 | 33-10.5 |
| Boys SP | 44-7.5 | 45-2 | 45-6 |
| Girls SP | 34-3.5 | 34-11 | 35-0.5 |
| Boys D | 141-0 | 145-0 | 142-3 |
| Girls D | 107-11 | 110-6 | 109-11 |
Class 4A
| 10 Days Out | Predicted | Final | |
| Boys 100 | 11.32 | 11.2 | 11.23 |
| Girls 100 | 13 | 12.86 | 12.9 |
| Boys 200 | 22.89 | 22.72 | 22.64 |
| Girls 200 | 27.02 | 26.65 | 26.39 |
| Boys 400 | 51.12 | 50.65 | 50.76 |
| Girls 400 | 01:01.2 | 01:00.4 | 59.99 |
| Boys 800 | 01:59.5 | 01:58.0 | 01:58.1 |
| Girls 800 | 02:21.1 | 02:18.7 | 02:20.2 |
| Boys 1600 | 04:26.8 | 04:22.0 | 04:22.8 |
| Girls 1600 | 05:18.1 | 05:12.5 | 05:10.1 |
| Boys 3200 | 09:48.5 | 09:34.0 | 09:36.4 |
| Girls 3200 | 11:36.9 | 11:27.5 | 11:30.3 |
| Boys 110H | 16.16 | 16 | 15.87 |
| Girls 100H | 16.79 | 16.4 | 16.31 |
| Boys 300H | 42.57 | 41.2 | 41.68 |
| Girls 300H | 49 | 48.25 | 48.02 |
| Boys 4×1 | 44.45 | 43.85 | 43.85 |
| Girls 4×1 | 51.62 | 51.05 | 51.21 |
| Boys 4×2 | 01:33.2 | 01:31.9 | 01:31.9 |
| Girls 4×2 | 01:50.1 | 01:48.8 | 01:48.4 |
| Boys 4×4 | 03:34.8 | 03:31.5 | 03:31.7 |
| Girls 4×4 | 04:17.5 | 04:13.5 | 04:12.6 |
| Boys 4×8 | 08:41.1 | 08:24.0 | 08:26.1 |
| Girls 4×8 | 10:45.5 | 10:25.0 | 10:21.8 |
| Girls SMR8 | 01:55.6 | 01:54.0 | 01:53.3 |
| Boys HJ | 6-1 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Girls HJ | 4-11 | 5-0.5 | 5-0 |
| Boys PV | 11-7 | 12-2 | 12-0 |
| Girls PV | 8-8 | 9-1 | 9-3 |
| Boys LJ | 20-9 | 21-4 | 21-2.25 |
| Girls LJ | 16-4.25 | 16-8.5 | 16-9.5 |
| Boys TJ | 41-6 | 42-7 | 42-5 |
| Girls TJ | 33-7.75 | 34-4 | 34-1.75 |
| Boys SP | 45-9 | 47-2 | 46-6.5 |
| Girls SP | 33-8.75 | 34-6 | 33-9.75 |
| Boys D | 136-11 | 145-0 | 140-7 |
| Girls D | 106-2 | 113-0 | 106-2 |
Class 3A
| 1 Week Out | Predicted | Final | |
| Boys 100 | 11.31 | 11.23 | 11.3 |
| Girls 100 | 13.18 | 13.09 | 13.18 |
| Boys 200 | 23.07 | 22.92 | 22.99 |
| Girls 200 | 27.29 | 27.15 | 27.2 |
| Boys 400 | 51.99 | 51.75 | 51.74 |
| Girls 400 | 01:01.2 | 01:01.0 | 01:01.1 |
| Boys 800 | 02:03.0 | 02:01.4 | 02:01.8 |
| Girls 800 | 02:27.0 | 02:23.5 | 02:23.3 |
| Boys 1600 | 04:39.8 | 04:36.2 | 04:35.9 |
| Girls 1600 | 05:25.3 | 05:22.8 | 05:24.2 |
| Boys 3200 | 10:11.0 | 10:00.0 | 10:01.3 |
| Girls 3200 | 12:02.4 | 11:53.0 | 11:57.4 |
| Boys 110H | 16.79 | 16.6 | 16.61 |
| Girls 100H | 17.48 | 17.3 | 17.47 |
| Boys 300H | 43.04 | 42.7 | 42.67 |
| Girls 300H | 49.91 | 49.75 | 49.67 |
| Boys 4×1 | 45.17 | 44.9 | 44.96 |
| Girls 4×1 | 52.81 | 52.55 | 52.4 |
| Boys 4×2 | 01:34.3 | 01:33.6 | 01:33.3 |
| Girls 4×2 | 01:52.5 | 01:51.8 | 01:50.8 |
| Boys 4×4 | 03:38.3 | 03:35.5 | 03:34.7 |
| Girls 4×4 | 04:23.3 | 04:20.0 | 04:19.1 |
| Boys 4×8 | 08:48.3 | 08:35.0 | 08:45.4 |
| Girls 4×8 | 11:00.2 | 10:40.0 | 10:35.2 |
| Girls SMR8 | 01:58.3 | 01:57.6 | 01:57.1 |
| Boys HJ | 5-10.5 | 6-0 | 5-11 |
| Girls HJ | 4-10.5 | 4-11.5 | 4-11 |
| Boys PV | 10-2 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Girls PV | 8-0 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Boys LJ | 20-5 | 20-8.5 | 20-7.25 |
| Girls LJ | 15-8.5 | 15-11 | 15-10 |
| Boys TJ | 40-7.25 | 40-11 | 41-2.25 |
| Girls TJ | 32-4.75 | 33-1 | 32-9.5 |
| Boys SP | 41-4 | 41-10 | 41-9 |
| Girls SP | 32-5.5 | 33-1 | 32-5.5 |
| Boys D | 122-8 | 130-0 | 126-0 |
| Girls D | 99-11 | 104-0 | 101-0 |
Class 2A
| 10 Days Out | Predicted | Final | |
| Boys 100 | 11.67 | 11.55 | 11.57 |
| Girls 100 | 13.56 | 13.46 | 13.5 |
| Boys 200 | 23.89 | 23.62 | 23.51 |
| Girls 200 | 28.13 | 27.94 | 27.85 |
| Boys 400 | 53.29 | 52.65 | 52.59 |
| Girls 400 | 01:03.6 | 01:03.2 | 01:03.0 |
| Boys 800 | 02:08.7 | 02:05.5 | 02:07.5 |
| Girls 800 | 02:40.6 | 02:33.8 | 02:37.3 |
| Boys 1600 | 04:51.2 | 04:44.0 | 04:47.9 |
| Girls 1600 | 06:08.2 | 05:50.0 | 05:55.6 |
| Boys 3200 | 10:50.8 | 10:32.0 | 10:39.5 |
| Girls 3200 | 13:29.0 | 13:06.0 | 13:12.3 |
| Boys 110H | 18.41 | 17.55 | 18.1 |
| Girls 100H | 18.39 | 17.7 | 17.98 |
| Boys 300H | 44.85 | 43.75 | 43.67 |
| Girls 300H | 53.29 | 51.95 | 52.32 |
| Boys 4×1 | 46.58 | 46.04 | 45.59 |
| Girls 4×1 | 55.22 | 54.1 | 53.98 |
| Boys 4×2 | 01:37.8 | 01:36.0 | 01:36.3 |
| Girls 4×2 | 01:55.8 | 01:54.0 | 01:53.5 |
| Boys 4×4 | 03:45.2 | 03:38.0 | 03:41.5 |
| Girls 4×4 | 04:40.5 | 04:30.5 | 04:31.1 |
| Boys 4×8 | 09:26.5 | 09:05.0 | 09:02.5 |
| Girls 4×8 | 11:38.0 | 11:18.0 | 11:18.9 |
| Girls SMR8 | 02:01.8 | 01:59.2 | 02:00.4 |
| Boys HJ | 5-8 | 5-10.5 | 5-10 |
| Girls HJ | 4-7 | 4-9.5 | 4-8 |
| Boys PV | 10-1 | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Girls PV | 7-8 | 8-1 | 7-8 |
| Boys LJ | 19-6.25 | 20-1 | 19-8.75 |
| Girls LJ | 15-3 | 15-9 | 15-3.25 |
| Boys TJ | 38-9.75 | 39-10 | 39-7 |
| Girls TJ | 31-2 | 32-3 | 31-11.5 |
| Boys SP | 41-2.25 | 42-9 | 43-4 |
| Girls SP | 32-1.5 | 33-3 | 32-9 |
| Boys D | 119-11 | 127-0 | 124-5 |
| Girls D | 97-10 | 101-0 | 100-10 |
Class 1A
| 10 Days Out | Predicted | Final | |
| Boys 100 | 11.82 | 11.74 | 11.8 |
| Girls 100 | 13.65 | 13.56 | 13.58 |
| Boys 200 | 24.35 | 24.18 | 24.08 |
| Girls 200 | 28.34 | 28.1 | 27.91 |
| Boys 400 | 54.41 | 54.02 | 54.06 |
| Girls 400 | 01:05.6 | 01:05.0 | 01:04.2 |
| Boys 800 | 02:17.7 | 02:13.5 | 02:12.9 |
| Girls 800 | 02:45.1 | 02:40.0 | 02:39.4 |
| Boys 1600 | 05:12.2 | 05:02.0 | 05:11.9 |
| Girls 1600 | 06:24.4 | 06:15.0 | 06:18.2 |
| Boys 3200 | 11:29.3 | 11:08.0 | 11:19.9 |
| Girls 3200 | 15:30.6 | 15:05.0 | 14:47.9 |
| Boys 110H | 18.58 | 18.1 | 18.07 |
| Girls 100H | 18.49 | 18.15 | 18.17 |
| Boys 300H | 47.46 | 46.25 | 45.64 |
| Girls 300H | 53.59 | 52 | 52.41 |
| Boys 4×1 | 47.37 | 46.5 | 47.26 |
| Girls 4×1 | 55.61 | 54.3 | 54.64 |
| Boys 4×2 | 01:39.2 | 01:37.5 | 01:38.3 |
| Girls 4×2 | 01:57.6 | 01:56.3 | 01:56.0 |
| Boys 4×4 | 03:57.1 | 03:51.0 | 03:46.8 |
| Girls 4×4 | 04:39.3 | 04:32.0 | 04:36.4 |
| Boys 4×8 | 09:50.7 | 09:35.0 | 09:36.2 |
| Girls 4×8 | 13:01.1 | 12:35.0 | 11:49.8 |
| Girls SMR8 | 02:02.9 | 02:00.0 | 01:59.8 |
| Boys HJ | 5-8 | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Girls HJ | 4-7 | 4-8.5 | 4-9 |
| Boys PV | 8-4 | 8-8 | 9-6 |
| Girls PV | 6-1 | 6-5 | 6-10 |
| Boys LJ | 19-6.75 | 19-11 | 19-10.25 |
| Girls LJ | 14-11 | 15-3 | 15-2.25 |
| Boys TJ | 38-5.5 | 39-9 | 38-9.5 |
| Girls TJ | 32-1 | 32-6 | 32-5 |
| Boys SP | 38-10.5 | 39-10 | 40-1.25 |
| Girls SP | 32-5 | 32-10 | 32-6.5 |
| Boys D | 117-7 | 122-0 | 121-4 |
| Girls D | 93-0 | 97-9 | 97-4 |
