Track and field – What it Took (May 16)

Over the last two weeks, I wrote five articles projecting what it would take to get to state. I’ve summarized below what the marks were, what I predicted, and what the actual outcomes were for the final state qualifying positions.

Due to scratches, some athletes were blessed enough to get into the state field despite not having a top-18 (or top-9, top-10, or top-12 in 1A) ranking. Over the years, however, I’ve been asked a lot of times if I could produce actual cutoff marks for qualifying for state in previous years. The tables below provide exactly that for 2022.

I don’t know that any of you care to check my projections against the actual marks, but—if you do—you can do that with the table below. If I’m writing about track and field this time next year, then I plan to take what I learned this year and see if it can yield some worthwhile improvements in the forecasts for next year.

As a general rule, the 100, 3200, 100/110 hurdles, and discus marks did not move as much as I projected. The 100s and 110H/100H had, apparently, already largely maxed out prior to last weekend. The 3200 was, frankly, lightly contested over the final weekend. And, surely not unrelated, not many meets provided great opportunities for top-end 3200s in the final days of qualifying. The winds that produce high-end discus marks didn’t show up last weekend. Winds, yes, the right winds, mostly no.

On the other hand, the 300 hurdles overshot my expectations in almost every instance.
Regardless, if what you really want to know is how the qualifying marks moved in the final 10 days (1A, 2A, and 4A) or in the final week (3A, 5A), then you have all that data available to you below.

Class 5A

1 Week Out Predicted Actual
Boys 100 11.03 10.95 10.96
Girls 100 12.52 12.45 12.52
Boys 200 22.33 22.23 22.3
Girls 200 26.01 25.87 25.87
Boys 400 50.21 49.99 50
Girls 400 59.64 59.3 59.13
Boys 800 01:58.9 01:58.4 01:58.6
Girls 800 02:19.0 02:18.2 02:18.3
Boys 1600 04:27.2 04:24.2 04:24.4
Girls 1600 05:10.2 05:08.1 05:07.8
Boys 3200 09:44.9 09:38.0 09:43.7
Girls 3200 11:22.6 11:18.0 11:22.6
Boys 110H 15.76 15.66 15.76
Girls 100H 16.3 16.22 16.25
Boys 300H 41.76 41.56 41.25
Girls 300H 48.56 48.22 47.8
Boys 4×1 43.35 43.2 43.29
Girls 4×1 50.9 50.75 50.51
Boys 4×2 01:30.4 01:30.1 01:30.3
Girls 4×2 01:47.6 01:47.1 01:46.6
Boys 4×4 03:29.5 03:28.7 03:28.0
Girls 4×4 04:12.8 04:11.3 04:08.1
Boys 4×8 08:29.3 08:21.0 08:27.5
Girls 4×8 09:59.3 09:51.0 09:55.9
Girls SMR8 01:53.3 01:52.5 01:52.6
Boys HJ 6-0 6-1 6-0
Girls HJ 5-0 5-1 5-0
Boys PV 11-6 12-2 12-0
Girls PV 9-8 10-0 9-9
Boys LJ 21-7.75 21-11 21-7.75
Girls LJ 16-9.25 17-1 16-9.5
Boys TJ 42-5 43-1 42-6
Girls TJ 33-10.5 34-4 33-10.5
Boys SP 44-7.5 45-2 45-6
Girls SP 34-3.5 34-11 35-0.5
Boys D 141-0 145-0 142-3
Girls D 107-11 110-6 109-11

Class 4A

10 Days Out Predicted Final
Boys 100 11.32 11.2 11.23
Girls 100 13 12.86 12.9
Boys 200 22.89 22.72 22.64
Girls 200 27.02 26.65 26.39
Boys 400 51.12 50.65 50.76
Girls 400 01:01.2 01:00.4 59.99
Boys 800 01:59.5 01:58.0 01:58.1
Girls 800 02:21.1 02:18.7 02:20.2
Boys 1600 04:26.8 04:22.0 04:22.8
Girls 1600 05:18.1 05:12.5 05:10.1
Boys 3200 09:48.5 09:34.0 09:36.4
Girls 3200 11:36.9 11:27.5 11:30.3
Boys 110H 16.16 16 15.87
Girls 100H 16.79 16.4 16.31
Boys 300H 42.57 41.2 41.68
Girls 300H 49 48.25 48.02
Boys 4×1 44.45 43.85 43.85
Girls 4×1 51.62 51.05 51.21
Boys 4×2 01:33.2 01:31.9 01:31.9
Girls 4×2 01:50.1 01:48.8 01:48.4
Boys 4×4 03:34.8 03:31.5 03:31.7
Girls 4×4 04:17.5 04:13.5 04:12.6
Boys 4×8 08:41.1 08:24.0 08:26.1
Girls 4×8 10:45.5 10:25.0 10:21.8
Girls SMR8 01:55.6 01:54.0 01:53.3
Boys HJ 6-1 6-2 6-2
Girls HJ 4-11 5-0.5 5-0
Boys PV 11-7 12-2 12-0
Girls PV 8-8 9-1 9-3
Boys LJ 20-9 21-4 21-2.25
Girls LJ 16-4.25 16-8.5 16-9.5
Boys TJ 41-6 42-7 42-5
Girls TJ 33-7.75 34-4 34-1.75
Boys SP 45-9 47-2 46-6.5
Girls SP 33-8.75 34-6 33-9.75
Boys D 136-11 145-0 140-7
Girls D 106-2 113-0 106-2

Class 3A

1 Week Out Predicted Final
Boys 100 11.31 11.23 11.3
Girls 100 13.18 13.09 13.18
Boys 200 23.07 22.92 22.99
Girls 200 27.29 27.15 27.2
Boys 400 51.99 51.75 51.74
Girls 400 01:01.2 01:01.0 01:01.1
Boys 800 02:03.0 02:01.4 02:01.8
Girls 800 02:27.0 02:23.5 02:23.3
Boys 1600 04:39.8 04:36.2 04:35.9
Girls 1600 05:25.3 05:22.8 05:24.2
Boys 3200 10:11.0 10:00.0 10:01.3
Girls 3200 12:02.4 11:53.0 11:57.4
Boys 110H 16.79 16.6 16.61
Girls 100H 17.48 17.3 17.47
Boys 300H 43.04 42.7 42.67
Girls 300H 49.91 49.75 49.67
Boys 4×1 45.17 44.9 44.96
Girls 4×1 52.81 52.55 52.4
Boys 4×2 01:34.3 01:33.6 01:33.3
Girls 4×2 01:52.5 01:51.8 01:50.8
Boys 4×4 03:38.3 03:35.5 03:34.7
Girls 4×4 04:23.3 04:20.0 04:19.1
Boys 4×8 08:48.3 08:35.0 08:45.4
Girls 4×8 11:00.2 10:40.0 10:35.2
Girls SMR8 01:58.3 01:57.6 01:57.1
Boys HJ 5-10.5 6-0 5-11
Girls HJ 4-10.5 4-11.5 4-11
Boys PV 10-2 10-6 10-6
Girls PV 8-0 8-2 8-2
Boys LJ 20-5 20-8.5 20-7.25
Girls LJ 15-8.5 15-11 15-10
Boys TJ 40-7.25 40-11 41-2.25
Girls TJ 32-4.75 33-1 32-9.5
Boys SP 41-4 41-10 41-9
Girls SP 32-5.5 33-1 32-5.5
Boys D 122-8 130-0 126-0
Girls D 99-11 104-0 101-0

Class 2A

10 Days Out Predicted Final
Boys 100 11.67 11.55 11.57
Girls 100 13.56 13.46 13.5
Boys 200 23.89 23.62 23.51
Girls 200 28.13 27.94 27.85
Boys 400 53.29 52.65 52.59
Girls 400 01:03.6 01:03.2 01:03.0
Boys 800 02:08.7 02:05.5 02:07.5
Girls 800 02:40.6 02:33.8 02:37.3
Boys 1600 04:51.2 04:44.0 04:47.9
Girls 1600 06:08.2 05:50.0 05:55.6
Boys 3200 10:50.8 10:32.0 10:39.5
Girls 3200 13:29.0 13:06.0 13:12.3
Boys 110H 18.41 17.55 18.1
Girls 100H 18.39 17.7 17.98
Boys 300H 44.85 43.75 43.67
Girls 300H 53.29 51.95 52.32
Boys 4×1 46.58 46.04 45.59
Girls 4×1 55.22 54.1 53.98
Boys 4×2 01:37.8 01:36.0 01:36.3
Girls 4×2 01:55.8 01:54.0 01:53.5
Boys 4×4 03:45.2 03:38.0 03:41.5
Girls 4×4 04:40.5 04:30.5 04:31.1
Boys 4×8 09:26.5 09:05.0 09:02.5
Girls 4×8 11:38.0 11:18.0 11:18.9
Girls SMR8 02:01.8 01:59.2 02:00.4
Boys HJ 5-8 5-10.5 5-10
Girls HJ 4-7 4-9.5 4-8
Boys PV 10-1 10-6 10-8
Girls PV 7-8 8-1 7-8
Boys LJ 19-6.25 20-1 19-8.75
Girls LJ 15-3 15-9 15-3.25
Boys TJ 38-9.75 39-10 39-7
Girls TJ 31-2 32-3 31-11.5
Boys SP 41-2.25 42-9 43-4
Girls SP 32-1.5 33-3 32-9
Boys D 119-11 127-0 124-5
Girls D 97-10 101-0 100-10

Class 1A

10 Days Out Predicted Final
Boys 100 11.82 11.74 11.8
Girls 100 13.65 13.56 13.58
Boys 200 24.35 24.18 24.08
Girls 200 28.34 28.1 27.91
Boys 400 54.41 54.02 54.06
Girls 400 01:05.6 01:05.0 01:04.2
Boys 800 02:17.7 02:13.5 02:12.9
Girls 800 02:45.1 02:40.0 02:39.4
Boys 1600 05:12.2 05:02.0 05:11.9
Girls 1600 06:24.4 06:15.0 06:18.2
Boys 3200 11:29.3 11:08.0 11:19.9
Girls 3200 15:30.6 15:05.0 14:47.9
Boys 110H 18.58 18.1 18.07
Girls 100H 18.49 18.15 18.17
Boys 300H 47.46 46.25 45.64
Girls 300H 53.59 52 52.41
Boys 4×1 47.37 46.5 47.26
Girls 4×1 55.61 54.3 54.64
Boys 4×2 01:39.2 01:37.5 01:38.3
Girls 4×2 01:57.6 01:56.3 01:56.0
Boys 4×4 03:57.1 03:51.0 03:46.8
Girls 4×4 04:39.3 04:32.0 04:36.4
Boys 4×8 09:50.7 09:35.0 09:36.2
Girls 4×8 13:01.1 12:35.0 11:49.8
Girls SMR8 02:02.9 02:00.0 01:59.8
Boys HJ 5-8 5-10 5-10
Girls HJ 4-7 4-8.5 4-9
Boys PV 8-4 8-8 9-6
Girls PV 6-1 6-5 6-10
Boys LJ 19-6.75 19-11 19-10.25
Girls LJ 14-11 15-3 15-2.25
Boys TJ 38-5.5 39-9 38-9.5
Girls TJ 32-1 32-6 32-5
Boys SP 38-10.5 39-10 40-1.25
Girls SP 32-5 32-10 32-6.5
Boys D 117-7 122-0 121-4
Girls D 93-0 97-9 97-4

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