Trimming the playoff field from 16 teams to eight in Class 1A this year will leave several quality teams on the sideline come the post-season. Colorado Preps has looked at virtually every team in the division and has decided on the eight teams we feel will qualify in 2020. This is a feature we will provide regularly throughout the season as results each week will change the projected field.
Before we announce our projections, there are several factors to keep in mind. The first involves league champions. In the past, these clubs were guaranteed a playoff berth but that’s not the case this year. All post-season bids will be determined by a formula that combines RPI with polls from CHSAA, MaxPreps and Packard. With that in mind, Colorado Preps will continue their weekly consensus polls as we tabulate the totals from those four sources.
A second factor is the lack of cross-over games between the conferences. These contests often impact RPI and give us a better understanding on the strength of a given league. This year, most teams have just one cross-over game so comparisons will be difficult. And the one outside opponent a team faces will play a major role in their RPI. If your cross-over opponent ends up 1-5, it will lower your RPI. But if you play a club that finishes the season at 5-1, your RPI will benefit. With a normal year of three to four non-conference games, strength of schedule can balance out a bit, but with just one such opponent this year, the game carries more importance.
A third point is also related to the one cross-over game. Fewer such contests could benefit leagues that often have trouble sending more than their league champion to the playoffs while it could hinder those traditionally stronger areas. As a result, we don’t expect one league to send more than two teams to the post-season in 2020.
With all those factors combined, we believe there are six teams that should be considered strong favorites to land a playoff berth. They are listed in alphabetical order.
- Bennett
- Centauri
- Florence
- Limon
- Meeker
- Strasburg
Even though conference champions are not guaranteed a playoff berth, Colorado Preps still picks those teams as playoff entrants. Centauri, Florence, Limon, Meeker and Strasburg are our favorites to finish atop their respective league standings this year. Finishing 6-0 or 5-1 overall with only a few cross-over games statewide should still get a league leader into the bracket.
All of those clubs will get pushed. Limon’s schedule includes five playoff teams from last year. Florence must battle through the likes of Colorado Springs Christian, Peyton & Rye. Meeker will get pushed by Hotchkiss on the Western Slope and Strasburg has a big date with Bennett. Centauri has the annual rivalry game with Monte Vista and will face an improved Center club as well.
Bennett is our first “non-champion” pick as there’s an excellent chance the Tigers run the table outside of their October 30th showdown with Strasburg. Since the remaining schedule does not include another playoff team from last year, the Tigers will end up 5-1 or 6-0 based on their outcome with Strasburg.
That leaves two available playoff berths in our projections and we think six teams will be in the running for those two spots; Burlington, Colorado Springs Christian, Highland, Holyoke, Hotchkiss and Wray.
Four of those teams are in the North Central so their head-to-head battles will play a major role. If one of those teams sweep the other three, they should get a playoff spot. But if they spend the regular season splitting many of those games, it will diminish their overall RPI and open the door for the likes of Colorado Springs Christian and Hotchkiss. All four also have Limon on their schedule so if one can get by the Badgers, the RPI will likely benefit and could give them the edge over the others.
Each of the clubs return starting quarterbacks and several key players so the race is difficult to call. Since Holyoke beat all three opponents last year and reached the state semifinals, we will pick them as the “lone survivor”.
With Holyoke in the bracket, one spot remains open and a battle opens up between Colorado Springs and Hotchkiss. Both, in our mind, are projected to be second place teams behind Florence and Meeker respectively in their league race. Both are returning playoff teams but each has to replace their top rusher from a year ago. Otherwise the teams are very even on paper.
Interestingly, the race between the Lions and Bulldogs could be won by the outcome of a game between Monte Vista-Dolores on October 30th. Kind of a curveball here, but Hotchkiss plays Dolores in their cross-over game and Colorado Springs Christian has Monte Vista. The Monte Vista-Dolores winner has a good chance of finishing with a better regular season record which will boost their opponent’s strength of schedule in RPI.
Monte Vista will be favored in that game, so we go with Colorado Springs Christian as our final choice in the pre-season playoff projections. That gets us to our eight qualifiers and again they are listed in alphabetical order.
- Bennett
- Centauri
- Colorado Springs Chrsitian
- Florence
- Holyoke
- Limon
- Meeker
- Strasburg
Remember, we will make projections on a regular basis throughout the season and the choices will change based on weekly results. Comments are welcome below or by email to [email protected].
