Our weekly regional tournament projections for 1A girls’ basketball includes a bit of a wrinkle this week. Colorado Preps again projects our regional tournament pairings but also brings in RPI standings to layout an alternative set of pairings.
Districts one and eight qualify two teams for the regional bracket and those teams go head-to-head in cross over pairings to determine two state qualifiers. The remaining districts each qualify three teams to their respective regional tournament with each bracket sending three to the state tournament.
REGION ONE
North Park, based on their win over DeBeque in December, remains our choice as the top pick from District 1. The second berth is developing into nice three-way battle between DeBeque, Ouray and Dove Creek. District tournament pairings will likely eliminate one of the teams as either Ouray or Dove Creek will be placed in the same side of the bracket as North Park.
Right now, DeBeque is our choice as the second qualifier. They have a win over Dove Creek (44-40) and the Bulldogs have beaten Ouray (50-40). Dove Creek’s win also would put them opposite North Park in the bracket which boosts their regional tournament chances.
Last week, Front Range Baptist and Belleview Christian were our top two choices from District 8. Since Front Range did not play and Belleview Christian went 2-0 on the week, we’ll keep them in the same order. But there is an important game on tap Thursday as Belleview Christian meets Cornerstone Christian. Cornerstone is our pick as the third best team in the district but of course they could move up by beating Belleview.
RPI is not important to the regional bracket as teams are placed in the pairings based on district tournament finish. The champion from one faces the runner-up team from the other in both cases.
Projected Regional Pairings
#1 DeBeque vs #2 Cornerstone Christian
#1 Denver Jewish Day vs #2 Ouray
REGION TWO
Eight of our nine qualifiers remain the same as last week with the lone exception involving Edison in District 7. The Eagles knocked off Elbert 46-38 and move ahead of the Bulldogs and into the top three. Edison meets Genoa Hugo on February 2nd and Kiowa on the 16th. The Pirates and Indians are our choices as the top two teams from the district. That order could also change as Genoa Hugo meets Kiowa on Friday.
Our District 4 order is identical to last week with Fleming, Briggsdale and Heritage Christian staying in spots one through three. Fleming gets the edge on Briggsdale based on a head-to-head win but the rematch is Saturday in Briggsdale. Despite the earlier loss to Fleming, Briggsdale is actually much higher in the RPI and could take over the top district/regional seed with a win this weekend. Briggsdale also faces Heritage Christian in early February so they still control their own future concerning seeding for the playoffs.
Weldon Valley also remains a factor but they’ve not done well against teams ahead of them with a loss to Fleming (50-31) and already two losses to Briggsdale. They do not face Heritage Christian in the regular season.
District 5 could also see a change in their projections as Idalia and Arickaree/Woodlin meet this Friday. Arickaree/Woodlin won the first meeting 39-21 and because of the decision, is the top selection in the district. Idalia is #2 with Otis holding Flagler/Hi Plains for the third spot. Those two clubs meet on February 3rd.
Projected Regional Seeds
#1 Fleming
#2 Briggsdale
#3 Heritage Christian
#4 Idalia
#5 Genoa Hugo
#6 Arickaree/Woodlin
#7 Kiowa
#8 Otis
#9 Edison
Projected Regional Pairings
#4 Idalia vs #9 Edison vs #1 Fleming
#5 Genoa Hugo vs #8 Otis vs #2 Briggsdale
#6 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #7 Kiowa vs #3 Heritage Christian
Now if RPI is used to layout the regional bracket, the current standings would result in a completely different bracket. Using the RPI from our projected nine qualifiers, the bracket could go this route. The biggest mover would be Edison as the Eagles are 4th in RPI for the district but 9th in our projected bracket.
CURRENT RPI SEEDING
1-Briggsdale
2-Fleming
3-Heritage Christian
4-Edison
5-A/Woodlin
6-Idalia
7-Kiowa
8-Genoa Hugo
9-Otis
CURRENT RPI BRACKET
#4 Edison vs #9 Otis (winner plays #1 Briggsdale)
#5 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #8 Genoa Hugo (winner plays #2 Fleming)
#6 Idalia vs #7 Kiowa (winner plays #3 Heritage Christian)
REGION THREE
In addition to District 4, the three districts that make up the regional bracket continue to be very deep in talent and fluid to how the pairings could end up.
About the only sure thing right now is that Kit Carson is the top choice for District 2. The defending state champions are unbeaten and thus far unchallenged. And maybe only the RPI can keep the Wildcats from nabbing the top overall seed. With numbers issued on Monday morning, the Wildcats trail Kim/Branson in the statewide standings.
Behind Kit Carson, there are many scenarios as McClave, Cheyenne Wells, Cheraw and Eads continue to trade wins against one another. So far this season, McClave has a win over Eads, Eads beat Cheraw, Cheraw topped Cheyenne Wells and Cheyenne Wells has a win over Eads. Because the results change weekly, we’ll pick based on the most recent outcomes and that gives the nod to McClave and Cheyenne Wells in spots two and three.
Kim/Branson rebounded from a tough loss to McClave to impressively top Sangre De Cristo last Saturday. That win kept the Mustangs the top choice in District 3 and also moved them back into the second spot in the regional tournament. They had fallen behind Sangre De Cristo before the win over the T-Birds.
Holly and Springfield remain our picks for the second and third position this week. They collide on Friday so the order could change going into next weekend. Holly also plays Kim/Branson and Springfield meets Kit Carson on Saturday so both the Wildcats and Longhorns have two very important games.
District 6 underwent some changes this week. Sangre De Cristo remains number one despite the loss to Kim/Branson but Sierra Grande jumped all the way to second as they upset Antonito on Friday. The Panthers had lost to the Trojans by 26 points earlier in the year but turned it around completely in the rematch. Antonito responded to beat La Veta the next night so they now sit third with La Veta falling to fourth.
Cotopaxi is not among our top three choices this week but the Pirates are 8th overall in RPI and could be a factor come the post-season. They have not fared well against high level competition thus far in losses to La Veta (49-39) and Sangre De Cristo (46-20) so they remain outside our top three.
Projected Regional Pairings
#1 Kit Carson
#2 Kim/Branson
#3 Sangre De Cristo
#4 Holly
#5 Springfield
#6 McClave
#7 Sierra Grande
#8 Antonito
#9 Cheyenne Wells
Projected Regional Bracket
#4 Holly vs #9 Cheyenne Wells (winner plays #3 Sangre De Cristo)
#5 Springfield vs #8 Antonito (winner plays #2 Kim/Branson)
#6 McClave vs #7 Sierra Grande (winner plays #1 Kit Carson)
As in Region Two, the bracket could be completely different if RPI is used to seed the bracket. We’ve used RPI numbers from Monday on our nine qualifiers to layout these pairings. Please not that Sierra Grande and Cheyenne Wells would likely be exchanged in the bracket to avoid conference rematches in the first round. Springfield could be the benefactor as a jump from fifth in our bracket to third in RPI would give the Longhorns a first-round bye.
CURRENT RPI SEEDING
#1 Kim/Branson
#2 Kit Carson
#3 Springfield
#4 McClave
#5 Antonito
#6 Sangre De Cristo
#7 Holly
#8 Sierra Grande
#9 Cheyenne Wells
CURRENT RPI BRACKET
#4 McClave vs #9 Cheyenne Wells (winner plays #3 Springfield)
#5 Antonito vs #8 Sierra Grande (winner plays #2 Kit Carson)
#6 Sangre De Cristo vs #7 Holly (winner plays #1 Kim/Branson)
