Class 2A football playoff brackets will be made official on Sunday following the completion of week 10 but we’ll take two more cracks at projecting the pairings. We’ll post some thoughts here today and then take another shot at them on Saturday once all the games are complete.
We do have to make a correction from earlier projections. We have presented the thought that conference finish plays a role in laying out the bracket. That’s incorrect. It’s stated in the CHSAA Football bulletin that the seeding process involves placing league champions on the board for consideration for the top overall seed and once a team was picked, the second place club from the conference of the number seed joined the remaining champions and a number two seed was selected. Was told by a committee member this week that this process is no longer in place.
Because of this mistake, our brackets may appear to be different than in week’s past. We also used head to head as a deciding factor as well but we were told that teams can only be moved for head-to-head if they’re touching along the seed line. If they’re separated by more than one seed, then the teams cannot be moved. In other words, if the 4th seed beat the 2nd seed, no movement will occur but the 4th seed would be moved ahead of the 3rd seed if they won the head-to-head matchup.
And of course the third major change involves the use of more data or rankings from across the state. RPI will be used to determine the 16 teams that make the field but the committee can then use a formula combining MaxPreps, Packard, RPI and the CHSAA polls to place teams in the bracket. We post those numbers in our weekly composite rankings.
Our thought in laying out projections is that the committee will heavily lean on the additional rankings and use them to at least seed the top eight. And then we believe the committee will turn to RPI to finish up the bottom eight.
A few games on the final week schedule will help round out the bracket. Englewood and Ridgeview Academy compete for the Colorado title while the outcome between Alamosa and Pagosa Springs will sort out the IML. Pagosa Springs is the champion with a win but a different result also brings Bayfield into the mix. We explain those possibilities in our 2A week 10 preview.
Those two games are important as the conference champ from both will likely finish outside the Top 16 in RPI. But as conference champions, they get a spot in the bracket but will bump teams that finish 15th and 16th in the standings from the field. Those teams are currently Academy and Aspen. Both the Wildcats (University) and Aspen (Basalt) have tough games this week but wins could move them farther up the RPI ladder and off the proverbial bubble.
Two other conference championships must be decided. Faith Christian captures the Flatirons by beating D’Evelyn and a loss would likely leave the Jaguars out of the bracket. Sterling must also get by Weld Central to avoid a three-way atop the Patriot East. The Tigers are also battling Rifle for the top overall playoff seed.
So in laying out our projected bracket, we used composite rankings for help with the top eight and then RPI for the second eight.
- #1 Sterling vs #16 (IML champion)
- #8 Lamar vs #9 Eaton
- #4 Delta vs #13 La Junta
- #5 Classical Academy vs #12 Bennett
- #3 Resurrection Christian vs #14 Moffat County
- #6 Platte Valley vs #11 Elizabeth
- #7 Faith Christian vs #10 Basalt
- #2 Rifle vs #15 (Colorado champion)
This bracket is very good overall. We have the Colorado champion ahead of the IML winner due to RPI but in this scenario we believe the two teams would be flipped for travel. They would remain 15-16th if Rifle gets the number one seed ahead of Sterling. The Tigers right now are the number one team in the composite rankings and also have a slight edge over Rifle in RPI. The Bears argument comes down to overall record as they’re 9-0 compared to the 8-1 mark of Sterling. The Tigers lone loss though came to an out-of-state opponent. Rifle and Resurrection Christian are tied in the composite rankings but again the Bears have the better overall record.
The lone travel concern involves Moffat County at Resurrection Christian but there’s not a better situation for Moffat County right now. Moving them to 13th or dropping them to 15th leaves them with a conference rematch against either Delta or Rifle.
Another game to watch is Lamar vs Elizabeth this week. The Savages right now would be eighth in our bracket and host Eaton in a very good opening contest. The Savages though could fall with a loss to the Cardinals and that would open the door for Eaton to be at home in round one.
