2A GIRLS REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

We continue our series on post-season basketball projections by looking at the Class 2A girls’ bracket.  The 2A format calls for District #3 to receive three bids and District #5 to collect five berths in the regional tournament.  Each remaining district earns four qualifiers.
Below we project not only the district champions but also the remaining qualifiers from each.  Then using the current RPI numbers, we project out the entire bracket.  District champions are seeded one through eight based on RPI and earn the right to play at home.  The rest of the field is seeded 9-32 but spots 25-32 could be moved to accommodate travel.
District #1

  1. Del Norte
  2. Sanford
  3. Sargent
  4. Custer County

Notes:  Del Norte play a key game on Saturday so that could exchange the top two spots but the Tigers appear to be the top of the league again this year.  Custer County and Cripple Creek collide on February 4th and that game could determine seeds four and five in the district bracket.  The fourth seed would host that game and earn that advantage.
District #2

  1. Yuma
  2. Wray
  3. Holyoke
  4. Haxtun

Notes:  Yuma and Wray play their league contest on Saturday so the top two spots could change going into next week.  We put the Indians number one as they knocked off Wray in December.  Wray also has a win over Holyoke in non-league play while Holyoke has beaten Haxtun twice.  Merino is unbeaten through three league games and could easily qualify from other districts but right now they’re fifth on our list here.  The Rams lost to Haxtun 46-45 before Christmas and the Bulldogs played without returning all-stater Dawson Knode who is now back in the lineup.
District #3

  1. Ignacio
  2. Dolores
  3. Telluride

Notes:  Ignacio is expected to roll through the league and district tournament without a loss.  Their post-season chances are hurt dramatically by playing in a conference suffering through a down year.  The Bobcats are just 31st in RPI this week and while they could quality for the state tournament, they would likely earn the 8th overall seed.  Dolores is the only other league club with an overall winning record.  The remaining four clubs have a total of four wins.  Telluride has three of them so we pick the Miners in 3rd.
District #4

  1. Limon
  2. Denver Christian
  3. Burlington
  4. Byers

Notes:  Limon has a win over Denver Christian (55-46) so they have the advantage.  The Badgers have a tough date at Simla on Tuesday which should boost their RPI a bit regardless of outcome.  Denver Christian has a win over Byers but will not play Burlington.  Burlington beat Byers so they have the edge in spots three and four.
District #5

  1. Soroco
  2. Rangely
  3. Meeker
  4. Vail Christian
  5. Paonia

Notes:  Soroco topped Vail Christian last week and has previous wins over Paonia and Rangely.  They don’t play Meeker until the finale on February 16th but should remain alone in first until that important matchup.  Meeker also beat Vail Christian last week but an earlier loss to Rangely prevents them from moving to second.  Rangely still has future games with Vail Christian and Paonia.  Paonia scored a 16-point win over Hotchkiss and that should help the defending state champions get a higher district tournament seed.
District #6

  1. Swink
  2. Rocky Ford
  3. Fowler
  4. Las Animas

Notes:  Swink has won the last two conference titles and is in great shape to make it three-straight.  We don’t expect the Lions to drop a league game this year.  Fowler was our pick in the pre-season to land the #2 district seed but the Grizzlies were upended by Rocky Ford last week.  That moves the Meloneers ahead in our district forecast.  The fourth spot should be a tight battle between Las Animas, Crowley County and Hoehne.  L-A topped both opponents in first meetings so they’re our pick at number four.
District #7

  1. Highland
  2. Clear Creek
  3. Dayspring Christian
  4. Lyons

Notes:  Highland has wins over Dayspring Christian and Lyons so the Huskies are in great shape as the top overall district seed and tournament favorite.  Clear Creek comes in from the 3A Frontier and should compete for a regional tournament berth.  Dayspring has quality wins over Akron and Merino in non-league play so that moves the Eagles into third.  They meet Lyons on the road February 2nd.  Lyons right now has a slight edge on Dawson and Union Colony for the fourth qualifier.
District #8

  1. Calhan
  2. Simla
  3. Ellicott
  4. Colorado Springs School

Notes:  We thought Simla would easily nab the district title and let the other three teams battle it out for spots two through four.  Calhan though handed the Cubs a 60-46 loss last week so the Bulldogs are now the #1 choice.  The two clubs play again on February 14th and that’s the conference game which will impact district tournament bracketing.  Ellicott moved into third after beating CSS 52-40 last week.
Top Eight Seeds
We have projected our district champions and using RPI numbers from Monday morning, the top eight seeds in the bracket would look like this

#1 Yuma

#2 Swink

#3 Del Norte

#4 Highland

#5 Soroco

#6 Limon

#7 Calhan

#8 Ignacio

 
Entire Bracket
Again, using our picks for regional qualifiers and coupled with the RPI, here’s a quick glance at potential regional tournament pairings.  Please note that spots 25-32 could be moved for geographical purposes but for this bracket, we left it as a true seed.  Winners of the eight regional tournaments would advance to the state tournament and be reseeded with new RPI numbers following the conclusion of action on March 4th.
 

Region One

#1 Yuma vs #32 Telluride

#16 Burlington vs #17 Simla

Region Two

#2 Swink vs #31 Byers

#15 Colorado Springs School vs #18 Haxtun

Region Three

#3 Del Norte vs #30 Dolores

#14 Rocky Ford vs #19 Lyons

Region Four

#4 Highland vs #29 Las Animas

#13 Rangely vs #20 Vail Christian

Region Five

#5 Soroco vs #28 Custer County

#12 Meeker vs #21 Sargent

Region Six

#6 Limon vs #27 Paonia

#11 Wray vs #22 Dayspring Christian

Region Seven

#7 Calhan vs #26 Sanford

#10 Denver Christian vs #23 Clear Creek

Region Eight

#8 Ignacio vs #25 Ellicott

#9 Holyoke vs #24 Fowler

 

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