If the RPI doesn’t change overnight, then the Class 3A football playoff bracket lays out very nicely. There’s one wildcard in the top eight that impact the host sites and then there could be conference rematches to avoid as well.
The seeding process is similar to other classifications where league champions that finished in RPI top 16 are placed on the board and a number one seed is chosen. The number two team from the same conference as the top seed is then placed on the board with the remaining league champions and a number two seed is then chosen. They continue until all 16 seeds are determined. Criteria include RPI, strength of schedule, common opponents, head to head and conference finish.
Discovery Canyon is our wildcard and where the Thunder are placed will determine the rest of the top eight. The Thunder are fifth in RPI and one spot ahead of Palmer Ridge but the Bears won the head-to-head meeting in impressive fashion to close the regular season. As a result, the committee will move Palmer Ridge ahead of Discovery Canyon. The next question is how far down the Thunder fall. Mead and Harrison are both league champions with strong finishes so the committee could choose to move both ahead of Discovery Canyon; or neither. Mead is a strong possibility to move ahead but Harrison is f four spots below Discovery Canyon so that’s likely too big a gap to overcome for a higher seed.
With our first bracket below, we exchange Palmer Ridge and Discovery Canyon and then go straight RPI.
#1 Palisade vs #16 Frederick
#8 Durango vs #9 Harrison (Harrison will host)
#4 Green Mountain vs #13 Pueblo South
#5 Palmer Ridge vs #12 Evergreen
#3 Pueblo East vs #14 Lewis Palmer
#6 Discovery Canyon vs #11 Thomas Jefferson
#2 Erie vs #15 Fort Morgan
#7 Mead vs #10 Holy Family
With the first bracket, there are two matchup concerns involving league pairings of Erie-Fort Morgan, Mead-Holy Family and Discovery Canyon-Thomas Jefferson. We expect Fort Morgan to be exchanged with Lewis Palmer instead of Frederick as the Warriors have already played Erie this year. Normally Holy Family would simply change spots with Thomas Jefferson but the Tigers have matched up with Discovery Canyon this year. To keep consistent in our bracket and avoid rematches from the regular season, then Thomas Jefferson moves to 10, Evergreen to 11 and Holy Family to 12th.
With those changes, our next bracket is in this order
#1 Palisade vs #16 Frederick
#8 Durango vs #9 Harrison (Harrison will host)
#4 Green Mountain vs #13 Pueblo South
#5 Palmer Ridge vs #12 Holy Family
#3 Pueblo East vs #14 Fort Morgan
#6 Discovery Canyon vs #11 Evergreen
#2 Erie vs #15 Lewis Palmer
#7 Mead vs #10 Thomas Jefferson
Now if the committee moves Mead ahead of Discovery Canyon, there are still matchup issues with Erie-Fort Morgan and Discovery Canyon-Holy Family. Again, the solution would be to exchange Lewis Palmer-Fort Morgan and Evergreen and Holy Family.   So, then the bracket is in this order and the only change is the seed order for Mead and Discovery Canyon.
#1 Palisade vs #16 Frederick
#8 Harrison vs #9 Durango
#4 Green Mountain vs #13 Pueblo South
#5 Palmer Ridge vs #12 Holy Family
#3 Pueblo East vs #14 Fort Morgan
#6 Mead vs #11 Thomas Jefferson
#2 Erie vs #15 Lewis Palmer
#7 Discovery Canyon vs #10 Evergreen
So,we think we’re very close to the final bracket at this point. If the seeding committee doesn’t worry about regular season rematches outside of conference play, then don’t be surprised if Thomas Jefferson and Holy Family are simply flipped at 10-11 and then Fort Morgan could be exchanged with Frederick at 15-16 to avoid major moves inside the RPI.
