With RPI numbers updated early Sunday morning, the 3A girls’ basketball state tournament bracket is close to being released.  We’ll do our best to project the 32-team field but it’s much more difficult than the boys’ side since there are so many head-to-head matchups to consider involving the highest ranked teams.
Six of the seven district champions finished the season in the RPI Top 16 so they will be in the top eight.  Those teams are St Mary’s, University, Delta, Pagosa Springs, Academy and Faith Christian with the Eagles sneaking in at #16.  Eagle Ridge Academy won the Confluence district but they are #34 in RPI and will be on the road in round one.  Their absence gives two top eight seeds and a home court advantage through the first two rounds to two wildcards and based on RPI, those teams are Centauri and Lutheran.
Now the fun begins with projecting the order of those top eight seeds.  In addition to RPI, the committee can use head-to-head results, common opponents and district results to see the clubs and there are many additional data points to consider.  Such as:

  • Pagosa Springs beat Centauri all three meetings but trails the Falcons by three spots in RPI
  • Centauri beat Delta in December but the Panthers were without their top scorer from a year ago
  • Lutheran has a win over Pagosa Springs in December
  • Lutheran and Faith Christian split two meetings this year with the Eagles taking the district semifinal this week. The Lions though have a 10-spot advantage in RPI
  • Academy is unbeaten including a win over University in the first game of the season for both clubs. But the Bulldogs have a four spot advantage in RPI.  Strength of schedule is also heavily in favor of University.

Put all those details into the blender and you could come up this order but we will note there are several different routes the committee can take for the top eight.  Only one thing is for sure.  St Mary’s should be the top seed in any bracket released.  After that it probably comes down to which factor becomes the most important to the committee.  We went with head-to-head results but if they choose to benefit RPI, this order will be much different.  Here is our set of projections for the top eight.

  1. St Mary’s
  2. Lutheran
  3. Pagosa Springs
  4. Academy
  5. University
  6. Centauri
  7. Delta
  8. Faith Christian

Using the latest posting of RPI standings on Sunday, we can then seed the remaining teams 9-32.  Remember that Eagle Ridge Academy gets in ahead of DSST-Montview for #32 as they’re an automatic qualifier.

  1. Vanguard
  2. Eaton
  3. Alamosa
  4. Manitou Springs
  5. Platte Valley
  6. Cedaredge
  7. Grand Valley
  8. Jefferson Academy
  9. Skyview Academy
  10. Brush
  11. Moffat County
  12. Roaring Fork
  13. Estes Park
  14. Riverdale Ridge
  15. Trinidad
  16. Liberty Common
  17. Middle Park
  18. Coal Ridge
  19. Kent Denver
  20. Colorado Springs Christian
  21. Buena Vista
  22. Sterling
  23. La Junta
  24. Eagle Ridge Academy

Now we take those seeds and place teams in the bracket.  We list the games in bracket order as the tournament is not reseeded before the Great Eight.
REGION ONE

#1 St Mary’s
#32 Eagle Ridge Academy
#16 Jefferson Academy
#17 Skyview Academy

REGION EIGHT

#8 Faith Christian
#25 Middle Park
#9 Vanguard
#24 Liberty Common

REGION FOUR

#4 Academy
#29 Buena Vista
#13 Platte Valley
#20 Roaring Fork

REGION FIVE

#5 University
#28 Colorado Springs Christian
#12 Manitou Springs
#21 Estes Park

REGION TWO

#2 Lutheran
#31 La Junta
#15 Grand Valley
#18 Brush

REGION SEVEN

#7 Delta
#26 Coal Ridge
#10 Eaton
#23 Trinidad

REGION THREE

#3 Pagosa Springs
#30 Sterling
#14 Cedaredge
#19 Moffat County

REGION SIX

#6 Centauri
#27 Kent Denver
#11 Alamosa
#22 Riverdale Ridge

 
Couple of matchups would be changed to avoid district pairings in round one.  Skyview Academy would likely be dropped one spot to avoid a first-round pairing with Jefferson Academy.  That would move Brush to #17 and Skyview Academy back to #18.  Coal Ridge would also be moved away from Delta in Region 7.  Kent Denver could exchange positions and take the first round matchup with Delta, leaving Coal Ridge to face Centauri.  We could also see Sterling and Buena Vista exchange spots to limit travel for both teams.  The Tigers would then go to Academy in the first round leaving Buena Vista for a trip down to Pagosa Springs.
Please note these are projections only with the official bracket release later today.