3A FOOTBALL – WEEK 11 PREVIEW

Schedule makers did a great job in 3A football this year as four league championships will be decided in the final week and head-to-head battles among league leaders will determine all four.  Two of the games feature unbeaten league teams squaring off as Mead meets Frederick for the North Metro crown and Erie meets Fort Morgan to decide the North Valley.  Other games of note involve Palmer Ridge against Discovery Canyon in the Central and Durango-Pueblo East in the South Central.
Win or lose this weekend, top ranked Erie will be in the playoffs as the Tigers are 5^th in RPI.  That’s not the case for Fort Morgan as the Mustangs are 16^th in the latest rankings and may need a win to get into the bracket.  They could still nab a berth with a loss as the game will give a much-needed boost to their strength of schedule which is currently 35^th best in the division.
Of course, the key to beating Erie is slowing down or at least limiting big plays from Noah Roper.  Each opponent this year has focused on the potential player of the year but none have had success.  Roper has totaled 1,648 yards with 29 TD’s which are impressive numbers in their own right; but even more so when you consider every defense is designed to slow him down.
QB Gavin Mendoza (415 yards) throws just enough to keep defenses a bit honest and has tossed nine touchdowns on the year.  Defensively, the Tigers are led by Nathan Hackney.  He’s fourth on the list in tackles but seemingly has a nose for the football with three interceptions and two fumble recoveries.  He’s responsible for one third of the 15 turnovers forced by the Erie defense.
Jaymeson Nelms is the top tackler with 35.  Ian Vera and Ian McDonald are next with 32 apiece.  Overall the Tigers have given up just 84 points and has won every game by at least 17 points.  Their narrowest win came against Mead (41-24).
Defensively, Fort Morgan has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in just one game this year and that came in a hard fought 27-21 win over Roosevelt.  They surrendered 199 yards in a loss to Thomas Jefferson but the overall the Mustangs defense has been strong against the run but this will be their biggest test of the regular season.  A key could be Nick Norris.  Third on the team with tackles (34), he also has 11 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and a few against Roper this week will boost the Fort Morgan defense.
On offense, Fort Morgan has received consistent production from Isaac Linker, JP Hamer and Jacob Ortega.  Linker has thrown for 829 yards and 15 TD’s passing and has also scored five times on the ground.  Ortega is his favorite target with seven of his 21 catches going for scores.  Hamer went over 1,000 yards in last week’s win and has reached the end zone eight times.
Roosevelt in the next highest rated league team in the RPI as the ‘Riders are 20^th this week.  The Riders have played the eighth strongest schedule but that’s not been enough to overcome their 3-6 record.  They finish with Niwot.
Mead and Frederick enter their league championship battle with a lot of similarities.  Both teams prefer to run the football but neither relies on just one workhorse to get yardage.  Mead has five players with at least 200 yards rushing and Frederick features six with more than 250.
Brandon Hornsby tops Frederick with 697 yards and 13 TD’s.  Trey O’Dell is next with 544 and six scores and Dante Ciaravola has totaled 466 with seven touchdowns.
Nathan Bailey tops Mead with 782 yards and ten scores.  He gets plenty of support from Jake Wachter (370), Ryan Bullock (355) and Brayden Keys (305).
If there is an advantage on offense, it’s the passing game of Frederick.  Jake Green has 828 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception on the season.  Mead’s Brady Veltien has 435 yards through the air with five scores.
Both teams also seem to be playing their best football of the season.  Mead suffered non-league losses to playoff teams Evergreen, Erie and Skyline but has won their four conference games by a combined 157 points.  Frederick dropped an early battle to Erie but has reeled off seven straight games and outscored four league rivals by 151 points.
The winner of course lands a league title and automatic playoff berth but both squads are safely in the bracket.  Mead is 10^th in RPI and Frederick 13^th but maybe only the winner will get the chance to play at home in round one.
Despite losses in two of their last three, Holy Family will be a third North Metro member to earn a playoff berth.  The Tigers are 8^th in RPI and despite a third-place league finish, remain in the running to host a first round game.   They have a road trip to Skyview to close up the regular season.

Defending state champion Palmer Ridge is alone atop the Central standings with a one game edge on Discovery Canyon but Friday’s winner is the league champion.  A win by the Thunder sets up a two-way tie for the top spot but they would win the tiebreaker in that scenario.   Neither team has to worry about getting a playoff berth as Discovery Canyon is 4^th in RPI and Palmer Ridge 9^th.
The local rivals have played similar schedules with differing results so it’s a bit difficult to figure out who the favorite might be.  Palmer Ridge seems to be playing better down the stretch but early in the season, that advantage went to Discovery Canyon.  They picked up a 52-24 win over Pueblo East while Palmer Ridge fell to the Eagles 28-21.  More recently, Lewis Palmer edged Discovery Canyon 30-27 but the Bears had no trouble against the Rangers in posting a 42-0 shutout last week.
Since the loss to Pueblo East, Palmer Ridge has picked off six straight wins and allowed just 35 points while doing so.  Against Lewis Palmer last week, the defense was superb in holding the Rangers to minus three yards on 22 carries.  Evan Walsh, who ran for a career best 318 yards the week before against Discovery Canyon, managed just three against Palmer Ridge.  Kaden Dudley also picked off two passes and returned one for a touchdown.
Offensively, the Bears were impressive as well.  Ty Evans threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns and added two more scores and 67 yards rushing.  Raef Ruel added a team best 72 yards on the ground.  Charles Deeds also caught eight passes for 140 yards and two scores.
Discovery Canyon’s offense has not been as productive over the last three games compared to the first five.  They averaged 454 yards rushing with 34 touchdowns in the first five outings but has been held to 267 and 11 scores over the past three.  A return to the early season numbers may be needed this week for the Thunder to land the championship.
Thomas Jefferson (11^th in RPI) and Lewis Palmer (14^th) are two other Central league members hoping to land a post-season bid.  The Spartans meet Lutheran this week and are probably a good bet to make it.  Lewis Palmer’s schedule is the 9^th most difficult in Class 3A and that could be enough to keep them in the bracket despite a finale with winless Littleton.
Durango heads to Pueblo East on Friday but we won’t know the exact scenario for the matchup until games wrap up on Thursday night.  Pueblo South plays Pueblo Central on Thursday and if the Colts win, then Pueblo East must beat Durango to win the championship outright.  In that scenario, Durango creates a three-way tie for the spot by upsetting Pueblo East.  Should Pueblo Central win on Thursday, then the Durango-Pueblo East game becomes a winner-take-all for the South-Central crown.
Again, there’s little pressure playoff wise on either team as Pueblo East is 3^rd and Durango 6^th in RPI standings.  Both will be named to the playoff bracket on Sunday and both could easily be at home in round one.  The winner thought will be assured that benefit.
The game features two of the best QB’s in Class 3A.  Luc Andrada leads Pueblo East in passing (2,069 yards) and rushing (517) and has combined for 30 touchdowns.  His numbers over the last two years have him at nearly 46-hundred yards of offense with 56 scores.
Durango counters with Jordan Woolverton who threw for 239 yards and rushed for 112 yards in last week’s blowout of Pueblo County (54-7).  Woolverton tossed five touchdown passes in the win and added another on the ground.  He’s at 1,460 yards and 13 TD’s on the season.
Another threat for Durango is Dawson Marcum.  He’s run for over 1,000 yards this year and caught four passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns against Pueblo County.
Palisade has clinched the Western Slope title and Glenwood Springs has wrapped up second.  The Bulldogs are the number one team in RPI this week but Glenwood Springs is 18^th and even a win over Steamboat Springs may not get the Demons in.  Palisade closes the regular season at Summit.
Battle Mountain has dropped to 19^th in RPI and may also need some help in getting into the bracket.  The Huskies are favored at Eagle Valley but the game will not help their strength of schedule which is currently 24^th.
Green Mountain sits second in RPI this week and the Rams have already clinched the Mt Metro crown.  They close at home against Lincoln and should be home again next week in a first round playoff game.   Evergreen will finish second in the conference with a win over Kennedy and they’re 14^th in RPI.
Harrison clinched the Southern title last Saturday when Canon City beat Mitchell.  Now the Panthers should finish off a perfect regular season against Mitchell this Friday.  The Panthers are seventh in RPI and would be higher if not for their 26^th rating in strength of schedule.  They will be the only league team in the playoffs.