Regional pairings for Class 3A boys’ basketball won’t be released until Tuesday because the Intermountain league tournament does not conclude until today.  That bracket was delayed due to heavy snow in the Southwest region.
Two games are on tap this afternoon as Montezuma Cortez meets Alamosa for the district title and Centauri meets Bayfield for third place.  All four teams will advance to the 32-team regional bracket but the Cortez battle with Alamosa is very important as that team should end up in the top 16 and host a regional tournament next week.  Entering the game, Cortez is 12th in RPI and Alamosa 16th but the Moose would move up a bit if they get the win today.
The past couple of seasons, RPI was the main driving force in placing 3A teams in the bracket.  But this year, the committee has been given some leeway to move teams up or down based on head-to-head competition, previous district matchups and common opponents.  And of course, RPI will be still be heavily involved.
As mentioned, a district champion must finish in the top 16 of RPI to earn the right to host.  Six of the seven champions fit that criteria right now.  DSST-Byers won the Confluence crown but is 25th in RPI and will not host.  And Alamosa is on the bubble (16th) but we expect the Moose to host if they get the win this afternoon.
So in getting to the top eight, we take the six district champions plus two at-large teams to host regionals next week.  Champions are Sterling, Lutheran, Vanguard, Delta, DSST-Stapleton and the winner between Cortez/Alamosa.  Two at large berths based on RPI released early this morning (Monday) would be awarded to Manual (2nd) and Coal Ridge (5th).  Manual lost to Lutheran in the district finals while Coal Ridge ended up third in the Western Slope bracket.
With the top eight teams, they would be placed in this order by RPI standings.  We list nine because Cortez and Alamosa both have a chance to host.

  1. Sterling
  2. Manual
  3. Lutheran
  4. Vanguard
  5. Coal Ridge
  6. Delta
  7. Montezuma Cortez
  8. DSST-Stapleton
  9. Alamosa

But the teams will be moved around a bit based on the other criteria mentioned above.  Using those factors we place the teams in this order.

  1. Lutheran
  2. Sterling
  3. Manual
  4. Vanguard
  5. Delta
  6. Coal Ridge
  7. Cortez/Alamosa winner
  8. DSST-Stapleton

We move Lutheran up from third to first as they have recent wins over both Sterling and Manual.  Sterling and Manual are kept ahead of Vanguard because of RPI standings but we could also see the Coursers bumped up to second as they’re unbeaten against Colorado teams.
Delta is moved ahead of Coal Ridge as they’ve beaten the Titans twice this season.  DSST-Stapleton will be seventh or eighth based on the result from Cortez/Alamosa.
The wildcard teams here are Kent Denver and Centauri.  They sit sixth and seventh in RPI standings and could become involved in the top eight discussion if Alamosa beats Cortez but falls out of the top 16 in doing so.  If that happens, another at-large berth in the top eight could open up with Kent Denver and Centauri next in line to jump up.  Kent Denver has completed their season but Centauri has a game with Pagosa Springs today.  It’s possible the Falcons jump past Kent Denver in the final standings once all the games are entered.
For our bracketing purposes, we keep the IML champ in the top eight and with a coin flip we go with Cortez as the champion.  Also for projections, we haven’t gone through all 32-teams with head-to-head results and common opponents — just did that for the top eight clubs.  So this bracket will be off in certain areas for sure but the remaining qualifiers are currently in this order.  DSST-Green Valley moves in at #32 as they’re an automatic qualifier from the Confluence league tournament.

  1. Kent Denver
  2. Centauri
  3. Resurrection Christian
  4. Faith Christian
  5. Colorado Springs Christian
  6. Platte Valley
  7. Colorado Academy
  8. Alamosa
  9. St Mary’s
  10. Roaring Fork
  11. Gunnison
  12. Lamar
  13. Eaton
  14. Grand Valley
  15. University
  16. DSST-Byers
  17. Bayfield
  18. Pagosa Springs
  19. Jefferson Academy
  20. La Junta
  21. Academy
  22. Strasburg
  23. Frontier Academy
  24. DSST-Green Valley

Then our bracket for Class 3A boys’ basketball
 
REGION ONE

#1 Lutheran
#32 DSST-Green Valley
#16 Alamosa
#17 St Mary’s

REGION EIGHT

#8 DSST-Stapleton
#25 Bayfield
#9 Kent Denver
#24 DSST-Byers

REGION FOUR

#4 Vanguard
#29 Academy
#13 CS Christian
#20 Lamar

REGION FIVE

#5 Delta
#28 La Junta
#12 Faith Christian
#21 Eaton

REGION THREE

#3 Manual
#30 Strasburg
#14 Platte Valley
#19 Gunnison

REGION SIX

#6 Coal Ridge
#27 Jefferson Academy
#11 Resurrection Christian
#22 Grand Valley

REGION TWO

#2 Sterling
#31 Frontier Academy
#15 Colorado Academy
#18 Roaring Fork

REGION SEVEN

#7 Montezuma Cortez
#26 Pagosa Springs
#10 Centauri
#23 University

 
There are several issues in this bracket and many teams would need to be moved.  Region 4 holds three teams from the Tri Peaks including a first round battle between CSCS and Lamar so at least one of those teams would be shipped out.  Sterling and Frontier Academy are also paired up in round one and since both are Patriot league members, Frontier Academy could be moved.  That issue is also resolved if Vanguard is given a higher seed than Sterling in the top eight.  Region 7 also includes three teams from the same conference (IML) so Pagosa Springs would likely be moved to avoid a first round matchup with Montezuma Cortez.  The issue again could resolve itself if Alamosa wins the IML crown this afternoon as they may end up below DSST-Stapleton in the seeding order.
Plenty of possibilities and far from the final bracket but it’s our first shot at laying out the pairings.  The official bracket will be released on Tuesday.