3A STATE PROJECTIONS (GIRLS)

Since the 32-team Class 3A girls’ state basketball pairings are due out today, we won’t provide a full breakdown of the bracket and instead focus on the top 16 seeds.  RPI numbers have been updated and they will be used to seed the bracket but the committee has flexibility to move teams around this year based on head-to-head results, common opponents and previous district results.

Colorado Springs Christian and St Mary’s are third and fourth in RPI but we believe the Tri Peaks have locked down the top two seeds in the bracket.  But deciding which team is one and which is second could prove difficult as the resumes are virtually identical.  They’ve split two contests and each has dominated many quality opponents throughout the season.  An argument can be made either way.  Colorado Springs Christian has the better RPI but St Mary’s also won the district championship.

Since RPI is the main factor in seeding, we’ll put Colorado Springs Christian at number one with St Mary’s a close second but again that could easily reversed.  And to be honest, there’s not much difference in the seeding as each club is favored to reach the state championship game.

Behind them, we have Pagosa Springs at number three.  The Pirates have just two losses the entire season and they’re against CSCS and St Mary’s.  Delta, other than an early loss to Centauri, has run through their schedule and should land the fourth seed.  Eaton and Lutheran should be fifth and sixth with Academy getting the nod over Platte Valley for seventh based on a head-to-head win.  Eagle Ridge Academy is a district champion but won’t be at home this weekend as they’re 31st in RPI standings.  That leaves two at-large berths and they will go to Colorado Springs Christian and Platte Valley based on RPI.

The next eight should be very close to the final RPI numbers.  One change should happen at number nine where Alamosa will likely be moved ahead of Centauri.  The Falcons are one spot better in RPI but Alamosa is 3-0 against them in head-to-head battles this year.  Centauri slips just one spot as they have a win over Cedaredge (11th).  Cedaredge stays ahead of Moffat County because of a slightly better RPI.  The Western Slope rivals have split two matchups this year.

So here are the projections for the top 16 seeds in the 3A girls’ bracket:

  1. Colorado Springs Christian
  2. St Mary’s
  3. Pagosa Springs
  4. Delta
  5. Eaton
  6. Lutheran
  7. Academy
  8. Platte Valley
  9. Alamosa
  10. Centauri
  11. Cedaredge
  12. Moffat County
  13. Skyview Academy
  14. Grand Valley
  15. Manitou Springs
  16. Resurrection Christian

Remaining qualifiers include the following (in order by RPI)

  • Faith Christian
  • Vanguard
  • Salida
  • Middle Park
  • University
  • Roaring Fork
  • Prospect Ridge
  • Colorado Academy
  • Lake County
  • Kent Denver
  • Lamar
  • Trinidad
  • Coal Ridge
  • Brush
  • Eagle Ridge Academy
  • Riverdale Ridge

Pairings will be released later today and there will be some movement in the bottom 16 seeds as well to avoid district matchups in round one and to lessen travel for some clubs.

 

 


Kevin Shaffer

Kevin Shaffer

Kevin Shaffer is the founder and owner of the Colorado Preps Network which debuted in the summer of 2003. Kevin and his wife Lanette reside in Fort Morgan and are the proud parents of Lexi and Tyler.
Kevin Shaffer
About Kevin Shaffer 1456 Articles
Kevin Shaffer is the founder and owner of the Colorado Preps Network which debuted in the summer of 2003. Kevin and his wife Lanette reside in Fort Morgan and are the proud parents of Lexi and Tyler.

2 Comments

  1. St. Mary’s played three 4A teams, one 5A, and no 2A. CS Christian played four 2A and one 4A. I would say that would be the resume separator. Maxpreps has SM at 5.7 strength of schedule and Christian at 4.9. I do agree that both teams should meet in the championship and start on opposite sides of the brackets but give the nod to the Pirates over the Lions.

    • Splitting hairs to be honest – I could make the argument both ways and the committee went with St Mary’s – maybe because of your notes – I don’t worry too much about non-classification games because they won’t compete against those schools for the 3A title – same without of state – I disregard in seeding since they’re not involved in the state title pursuit.

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