With conference races starting to settle in a bit, we can start the weekly process of projecting the 3A Girls’ basketball state tournament field.  The top two teams from each district tournament automatically qualify with the remaining 18 teams in the field filled out through RPI.  For our projects, we use current conference standings and RPI numbers from January 27th.
In several conferences, teams either share the lead or are tied for second place.  Where a tiebreaker is needed to determine the 14 automatic qualifiers, we resort to best overall record or where available, the winner of the head-to-head matchup.
With the criteria in mind, here’s a quick look at our top two qualifiers from each conference:

  • Frontier:  Academy #1, Middle Park #2 (both unbeaten in league but Academy has best overall record)
  • Patriot:  Eaton #1, Platte Valley #2 (Broncos are tied with Rez Christian but won head to head meeting)
  • Metro:  Four way tied for lead – #1 Skyview Academy, #2 Colorado Academy (based on overall winning percentage)
  • Tri Peaks:  CS Christian #1, St Marys #2 (Pirates tied with Lamar and Manitou but have better record — play both this week)
  • Intermountain:  Pagosa Springs #1, Alamosa #2
  • Western Slope:  Delta #1, Moffat County #2 (both unbeaten in league but Delta has best overall record)
  • Confluence:  Strive Prep #1, Eagle Ridge Academy #2 (both unbeaten in league but Strive Prep has better overall record)

District champs are Academy, Eaton, Skyview Academy, Colorado Springs Christian, Pagosa Springs, Delta and Strive Prep.  Those clubs must finish in the Top 16 of RPI to guarantee the right to host a regional.  Open spots are filled based on the next team with the highest RPI.
Using RPI from Sunday, six of the seven district champions are in the top 16 so they would be at home in the first two rounds.  The exception is Strive Prep.  The Confluence leaders are only 30th in RPI would be shipped on the road in the opening two rounds.  That leaves two open spots for non-league champions to host and those would be filled by St Mary’s (5th) and Centauri (6th).
So the top eight seeds in the field would be:

  1. Colorado Springs Christian
  2. Delta
  3. Pagosa Springs
  4. Eaton
  5. St Mary’s
  6. Centauri
  7. Academy
  8. Skyview Academy

 
Another concern with bracket layout involves Eagle Ridge Academy.  They’re 40th in RPI but in our scenario earn a spot in the pairings as the number two qualifier from the Confluence league.  They would bump Jefferson Academy from the field as the Jaguars are currently 32nd in RPI.
Once the qualifiers are set, the teams are then placed in the bracket by RPI.  Teams can be moved based on head-to-head competition and common opponents and teams from the same league likely won’t be paired up in round one.  Teams in positions 25-32 could also be moved for geography and travel purposes.  For our bracket, we simply true seed based on RPI.
 
 
 

CLASS 3A BRACKET

 
REGION ONE

#1 Colorado Springs Christian  
#32 Eagle Ridge Academy  
#16 Resurrection Christian  
#17 Manitou Springs  

 
REGION EIGHT

#8 Skyview Academy  
#25 Salida  
#9 Platte Valley  
#24 Prospect Ridge  

 
REGION FOUR

#4 Eaton  
#29 Strasburg (would be moved)  
#13 Roaring Fork  
#20 University  

 
REGION FIVE

#5 St Mary’s  
#28 Faith Christian  
#12 Cedaredge  
#21 Middle Park  

 
REGION THREE

#3 Pagosa Springs  
#30 Strive Prep  
#14 Moffat County  
#19 Lamar  

 
REGION SIX

#6 Centauri  
#27 Kent Denver  
#11 Alamosa  
#22 Riverdale Ridge  

 
REGION SEVEN

#7 Academy  
#26 Estes Park  
#10 Grand Valley  
#23 Coal Ridge (would be moved)  

 
REGION TWO

#2 Delta  
#31 Colorado Academy  
#15 Lutheran  
#18 Vanguard