Last week, I did what-will-it-take projections for 1A, 2A, and 4A. I’m mostly pleased with how the projections held up against the progression of the marks over the weekend. There were, however, seven projected marks that have already been exceeded. Yesterday, I did the same projections for 3A. It’s too soon to get a read on how those projections are faring.
As someone who spent long portion of his life coaching athletes to make state-qualifying marks, I understand something of the pain of thinking you’ve laid down a big enough mark to make it only to discover you haven’t. It certainly was not my intent to offer up projections of what it will take (over a two-week span) that would fall within one week, but a small amount of that is bound to happen. There’s inherent variability in the process of posting state-qualifying marks.
Making projections of what it will take is, in one sense, easier when there is only one week remaining in the qualifying season. You have more information to work from and fewer variables to weigh. But, in another sense, it’s more difficult. With only one week in the season to go, teams are forced into choices. You can’t pursue everything, so you have to pick and choose what you’ll pursue. So, some events will be largely ignored in the final week while other events will see intense competition. It’s very difficult to know in advance which events will fall into which piles. Nevertheless, I’ve take my best shots below.
Packing, below, is measured on a 1-3 scale, 1 being very light packing, 3 being fairly intense packing. Clearly, if you’re aiming for state, light packing is a more hopeful sign than tight packing.
My hope is that you’ll find these projections useful as you set your faces toward qualifying for state in the week ahead.
Date: May 10 (this is important to cross-reference the #18 rankings shown below)
5A Boys 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Dante Capolungo, Dakota Ridge, 11.03; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10.95
5A Girls 100 Meter Dash
Current #18: Zane Bullock, Rangeview, 12.52; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 12.45
5A Boys 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Carlson Tann, Cherry Creek, 22.33; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 22.23
5A Girls 200 Meter Dash
Current #18: Fabiola Belibi, Regis Jesuit/Ava Robinson, Grandview, 26.01; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 25.87
5A Boys 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Louden Harger, Fort Collins, 50.21; Packing: 1, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 49.99
5A Girls 400 Meter Dash
Current #18: Cadence Lapp, Loveland, 59.64; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 59.30
5A Boys 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Jayden Thulson, Arapahoe, 1:58.87; Packing: 3, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:58.40
5A Girls 800 Meter Run
Current #18: Leah Hill, Denver East, 2:18.96; Packing: 2, Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 2:18.15
5A Boys 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Daniel Hruska, Cherry Creek, 4:27.22; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:24.25
5A Girls 1600 Meter Run
Current #18: Hanan Aldelemy, Dakota Ridge, 5:10.20; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 5:08.10
5A Boys 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Daniel Hruska, Cherry Creek, 9:44.85; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 9:38.00
5A Girls 3200 Meter Run
Current #18: Elena Torres, Loveland, 11:22.65; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 11:18.00
Carsen Bruns of Rampart is a solid threat to win both hurdle events.
5A Boys 110 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: William Acheson, Rocky Mountain, 15.76; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 15.66
5A Girls 100 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Brielle Roberts, Rampart/Trinity Andrews, Denver East, 16.30; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 16.22
5A Boys 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Logan Correll, Poudre, 41.76; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 41.56
5A Girls 300 Meter Hurdles
Current #18: Catherine Campbell, Monarch/Kara Lyons, Highlands Ranch, 48.56; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 48.22
5A Boys 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Castle View, 43.35; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 43.20
5A Girls 4×100 Meter Relay
Current #18: Regis Jesuit, 50.90; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 50.75
5A Boys 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Denver East, 1:30.38; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:30.05
5A Girls 4×200 Meter Relay
Current #18: Doherty, 1:47.57; Packing: 1; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:47.10
5A Boys 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Pine Creek, 3:29.51; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 3:28.70
5A Girls 4×400 Meter Relay
Current #18: Loveland, 4:12.75; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 4:11.25
5A Boys 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Fossil Ridge, 8:29.32; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 8:21.00
5A Girls 4×800 Meter Relay
Current #18: Pine Creek, 9:59.30; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 9:51.00
5A Girls 800 Meter Sprint Medley Relay
Current #18: Pomona, 1:53.31; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 1:52.50
5A Boys High Jump
Current #18: Massive tie at 6-0; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 6-1
5A Girls High Jump
Current #18: Massive tie at 5-0; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 5-1
5A Boys Pole Vault
Current #18: Miles Philson, Cherokee Trail, 11-6; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 12-2
5A Girls Pole Vault
Current #18: Massive tie at 9-8; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 10-0
5A Boys Long Jump
Current #18: Levi Hoenninger, Monarch, 21-7.75; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 21-11
5A Girls Long Jump
Current #18: Lillian Krob, Cherokee Trail/Gabriella Cunningham, Grandview, 16-9.25; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 17-1
5A Boys Triple Jump
Current #18: Jaylen Lee, Fountain-Ft. Carson, 42-5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 43-1
5A Girls Triple Jump
Current #18: Avry MacKenzie, Rocky Mountain, 33-10.5; Packing: 3; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 34-4
5A Boys Shot Put
Current #18: Roman Schwab, Highlands Ranch, 44-7.5; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 45-2
5A Girls Shot Put
Current #18: Jaymie Baghdadi, Greeley West, 34-3.5; Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 34-11
5A Boys Discus
Current #18: Luke Sandy, Legend, 141-0 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 145-0
5A Girls Discus
Current #18: Emma Stalder, Fossil Ridge, 107-11 (note that any fractions of inches shown on discus marks should be ruled irrelevant); Packing: 2; Projected Top-18 Cutoff: 110-6
Note that on the discus marks, a lot depends on general wind conditions. If the right quartering winds show up at multiple venues, the projected marks listed here are probably not aggressive enough. If winds are consistently blowing at the backs of the throwers, we probably won’t reach the projected marks shown. Over the course of a season, these things will tend to even out. Over the course of a week of competition, not so much so.
Now, all that’s left for us is to wait and see what the week holds. Look for a comparable 5A article tomorrow.
