It’s a wide-open field in Class 2A this year as several teams have legitimate hopes of reaching the state championship game in early December.  Throughout the season, we will take results from each week and then try to project the eight qualifiers.  That effort starts today as we make our picks for playoff teams before a single game is played.

Depending on how you look at it, the absence of regular playoff teams such as Basalt, Rifle, Faith Christian, Kent Denver and Classical Academy may make the job of projections easier or possibly harder.  There’s no doubt some of those if not all of the clubs would be in our projection playoff field.  But with them waiting for the spring season, even more programs can be considered.

Again, a reminder before we make our selections that the format is different this year.  Eight, instead of 16 teams, will qualify for the bracket and league champions are not guaranteed a berth in the bracket.  Qualifiers will be determined by a formula that combines RPI with polls from MaxPreps, Packard and CHSAA.

The regular season layout is much different as well this year as the 28 teams scheduled to play in the Fall have been realigned into four seven-team conferences.  And some of those changes will have a direct impact on which teams get into the bracket.

Let’s start by looking at three teams that we believe are locks to make the eight-team bracket:

  1. Delta
  2. Lamar
  3. Resurrection Christian.

Delta is the returning state runners-up and they should garner the best record of teams in the West division.  Elizabeth and Englewood are good programs traditionally but each have some key players lost to graduation to replace.  And in fact, the Panthers may get their strongest push from an improved Woodland Park club.  They collide in week three.

Lamar may have the most returning talent in Class 2A and they should be the favorite to land the Southwest title but it won’t be easy as the schedule includes long road trips to Pagosa Springs and Alamosa.  Then there’s the annual Whistle game with La Junta and a tough home game with tradition rich Bayfield.

The biggest concern for Resurrection Christian might be strength of schedule.  Since Eaton was moved to the Patriot East, the Cougars do not face a team this year that qualified for the playoffs in 2019.  Their lone true test may come in week one as they face a D’Evelyn team that has a good crew coming back from last year’s five-win ballclub.  If Resurrection Christian wins in week one, they could easily finish at 6-0.  That should be good enough to get them in but RPI will be lower than some other clubs due to schedule.

Next, we add a couple of more teams that likely finish second in their respective standings:

  1. Pagosa Springs
  2. Woodland Park

Maybe these are surprising picks this early but right now Pagosa Springs is probably the top contender to Lamar in the Southwest division.  Those two clubs meet Halloween night in Pagosa.  Plus, the Pirates have other tough games with Alamosa, Bayfield and La Junta.

Woodland Park is our pick to finish behind Delta in the West.  Englewood is also in the conference and a returning playoff team but while the Bobcats return key skill players, the Pirates must find a new QB and top RB.  The Bobcats can also boost their hopes very early by beating Alamosa in week one.  That game is very important to both clubs and their playoff chances.

So, we are down to three available spots in our preseason projections and normally we would select Sterling, Platte Valley and Eaton.  But with all three of those teams in the same conference this year, getting all three to qualify may prove difficult.  Platte Valley plays Sterling on October 23rd and then Eaton on November 13th.  Eaton and Sterling face off in week two (October 16th).  The outcome of those three games should decide spots 1-3 in the Patriot East and will go a long way to determining which teams advance.

The best scenario for all three teams to qualify could be to split those head-to-head matchups.  Such an outcome could leave all three clubs with identical 5-1 records at seasons end.  And then the RPI strength of schedule would be boosted for all three.  And that’s the route we are going to take and push all three teams into the bracket.

With the Tigers, Reds and Broncos in place, our eight projected playoff teams in 2A:

  1. Delta
  2. Eaton
  3. Lamar
  4. Pagosa Springs
  5. Platte Valley
  6. Resurrection Christian
  7. Sterling
  8. Woodland Park

Should only two teams from the Patriot East qualify, that opens the door for D’Evelyn as the projected runner-up in the Patriot East or possibly Englewood and Alamosa as qualifiers.  We will make projections on a regular basis throughout the season and the choices will change based on weekly results.  Comments are welcome below or by email to [email protected].