Very high probability that the teams we predict for the 4A playoff bracket will be much different by seasons end. There are so many ways the 4A regular season can go and with only eight post-season bids available, narrowing the picks to just eight teams this early in the year is difficult if not impossible.
In reviewing teams, you have traditional powers that return quite a bit of talent and others that have major holes to fill. There are several newcomers such as Palmer, Erie and Fountain Fort Carson that must also be considered the bracket. Vista Peak is a returning playoff team that will compete in the spring.
Pine Creek is also the defending state champion but will compete in 5A for the regular season and it will be interesting to see the impact on RPI. RPI is just one factor in the playoff formula as polls from CHSAA, MaxPreps and Packard are also in the mix. League champions are not guaranteed a playoff spot this season.
With Pine Creek in 5A, there are six conferences with six members apiece. The I-25 is one of those conferences and was set up originally as a developmental league. Even with realignment due to the changes in the schedule this year, that group was kept together and it’s doubtful that any will make the post-season bracket. We feel they won’t get enough attention by the Coaches Poll to draw one of the top eight bids but this season represents the start of rebuilding their programs.
So that leaves us with five conferences but only eight post-season invitations. Here in the preseason, we feel very good about five teams to make the playoff bracket:
- Dakota Ridge
- Loveland
- Palmer Ridge
- Pine Creek
- Skyline
Pine Creek lost a ton of talent on offense to graduation but the Eagles have been a finalist six times since 2011 so they will be a factor. Palmer Ridge is the defending three-time state champions in Class 3A and they’ve proven over the past couple of years that they can compete on the 4A level. And with a few future Division 1 players on the roster, they will push for the state championship again this year.
Dakota Ridge could be loaded. They barely missed the state finals last season and most of their key players return. Skyline has good offensive talent back as well and they’re likely still smarting from a first round playoff loss a year ago. Loveland was very young last year but still won seven games and made the post-season in 2019. They should take the next step this season and make a playoff run.
With those selections, we now have three more playoff picks and there are quite a few strong contenders.
In a normal 16-team field, the likes of Ponderosa, Montrose, Longmont, Fruita Monument, Pueblo West, Fountain Fort Carson, Heritage, Broomfield, Brighton, Windsor and Chatfield would be included. But those clubs now battle for the three available berths.
The West conference this year includes five playoff teams from last year. But with only eight spots, it’s likely only one more team gets in to join Palmer Ridge from the conference. And that will be a strong battle between Ponderosa, Montrose and Fruita Monument.
Longmont is a returning playoff team and made the bracket behind a sophomore quarterback that is a year older, stronger and more experienced. But right now, we have them as the third best club behind Skyline and Loveland in the Northern 2. Again, getting three teams from one conference into an eight-team playoff could prove difficult.
The Southern race should come down to the battle between Fountain Fort Carson and Pueblo West. FFC won just three games last year but is 5A tested over the years and we think they will have a quick impact in Class 4A. Pueblo West won 11 games last year, but must replace a very talented QB lost to graduation. Rampart and Vista Ridge could also surprise there.
The Northern 1 race could get crazy. On paper, we would call Broomfield, Brighton, Heritage and Windsor all even. Erie and Silver Creek also have good tradition. If one team gets through the schedule without a loss, they of course will qualify but the teams could also spend the year beating up on one another. If that happens, the top team could be 4-2 and that may not be enough to get in this year.
And then the Jeffco. Like we said above, Dakota Ridge is our favorite. Chatfield and Golden both had solid years in 2019 but both have some question marks coming into the campaign. But one could easily get into the bracket as the number two team behind Dakota Ridge.
Toss all that into the blender and we come up with the remaining three qualifiers in our preseason selections.
- Ponderosa
- Fountain Fort Carson
- Windsor
Ponderosa beat Montrose, Heritage and Skyline last year so we put them in the bracket this year based on their solid group of returnees. Fountain Fort Carson is our surprise pick over Pueblo West in the south and Windsor could end up atop the heap in the wild Northern 1 chase. The Wizards were our selection as they return a starting quarterback and their running game may be easier to get going in a short six game regular season compared to Broomfield and Heritage which must develop new signal callers.
Some week one games will have an impact on the early playoff chase and could quickly change our playoff choices:
- Loveland at Heritage (Thursday)
- Palmer Ridge at Golden (Friday)
- Chatfield at Montrose (Friday)
- Longmont at Brighton (Friday)
- Broomfield at Monarch (Friday)
We will look at weekly results and provide updates to our playoff choices through the regular season and we expect many changes over the full campaign if not on a weekly basis.
