Three league champions in eight-man football have already been decided and the last three could be crowned this weekend.  We provide a breakdown of each conference race and take another shot at laying out a potential playoff bracket.
 

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

ARK VALLEY

  • Hoehne can clinch the league championship by beating either Wiley or McClave in final week
  • Holly and Springfield are tied for second place at 3-1 and play in the final week. That game will determine second and third if both teams win this week
  • RPI: Hoehne #5, Fowler #9, Holly #14, Springfield #18, McClave #25 — Hoehne and Fowler appear to be locks for playoff berths with Holly and Springfield both on the bubble

CENTRAL

  • Front Range Christian has clinched league title
  • South Park and Elbert are tied for second place and meet in the final week. That game will determine second and third if Elbert beats Justice this week.
  • RPI: Front Range Christian #22, South Park #24, Elbert #31 — likely only the conference champion gets in to playoffs

MOUNTAIN

  • Mancos has clinched the league championship
  • Sargent and Sanford are both 3-1 in conference play and will play in the final week. Outcome will determine second and third if both teams grab wins this weekend.
  • RPI: Mancos #4, Sanford #7, Sargent #11, Norwood #15, Dove Creek #20 — league should be solid for three bids and could get a fourth if Norwood can stay in the top 15

NORTHWEST

  • West Grand can clinch the league championship by beating Soroco this week or Gilpin County next week
  • Rangely can lock down second with a win in either of their final two games
  • Vail Christian also wraps up no worse than third place by beating Plateau Valley this week
  • RPI: West Grand #1, Rangely #3, Vail Christian #10, Soroco #17 — top three teams appear to be locks with West Grand and Rangely both in great shape to host first round games.  Soroco is also in contention

PLAINS

  • The winner between Sedgwick County and Caliche this week wins the championship and the loser will be second
  • If Akron beats Haxtun this week, then the Rams and Dayspring Christian face off on October 26th to determine third and fourth
  • RPI: Sedgwick County #1, Caliche #6, Akron #8, Dayspring Christian #16, Merino #19, Byers #23 — top three teams will make the playoffs with Dayspring and Merino squarely on bubble.  With Front Range Christian outside the top 16 but in the playoffs as a league champion, Dayspring needs to climb into the top 15 as the team in 16th most likely will be bumped by Front Range.

SOUTHERN

  • Pikes Peak Christian has clinched the league championship
  • Simla has clinched second
  • Custer County and Calhan meet in the final week to determine third place
  • RPI: Pikes Peak Christian #12, Simla #13, Custer County #21 — only Pikes Peak Christian has secured a post-season bid as Simla could be hurt by their remaining schedule against Las Animas and Miami Yoder.  The Cubs have the 31st strongest schedule in eight man as of this week.

 

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

All league champions are guaranteed a berth in the playoff bracket and the remaining spots are filled by RPI standings at the end of the regular season.  As mentioned in the league breakdown, Front Range Christian gets in as league champion even though they’re currently 22nd in RPI.  If the playoffs opened this week, then the team in the 16th spot of RPI (Dayspring Christian) would be bumped by the Falcons.  Front Range Christian has one game remaining with Swink but a win there probably won’t move them much higher in the standings.
Once the teams have been selected, the seeding committee will then place them in the bracket.  All league champions from the Top 16 of RPI are placed on the board and a number one overall seed is selected from that group.  When a league champion is off the board, the second-place team from that conference is then placed on the board and a second overall seed is selected.  Then once that team is removed, the next highest team from the conference is then added to the board for a third seed.  That process continues until all 16 teams are seeded.  Criteria includes RPI, common opponents, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition.
Using RPI from Sunday October 14th, the bracket could appear in this order.  As like last week, we use Sedgwick County as the champion from the Plains conference as they’re higher than Caliche in RPI.  Those two collide this week to determine the position.  We also use Hoehne as the league champion from the Ark Valley even though the Farmers haven’t officially clinched.  The same with West Grand in the Northwest.
Using the criteria listed, we put together the bracket in this order.

#1 Sedgwick County vs #16 Front Range Christian

#8 Pikes Peak Christian vs #9 Akron

#4 Hoehne vs #13 Simla

#5 Rangely vs #12 Sargent

#3 Mancos vs #14 Fowler

#6 Caliche vs #11 Holly

#2 West Grand vs #15 Norwood

#7 Sanford vs #10 Vail Christian

Even though Rangely has the higher RPI than both Mancos and Hoehne, we believe the committee will go the route of awarding league champions the higher seed in such a situation.  Mancos is also unbeaten on the season which gives them the edge over Rangely and Hoehne’s lone loss is against three-time state champion Sedgwick County.  Rangely has the single loss to West Grand so we place them in the fifth spot.  They also played West Grand to a closer margin than Caliche this season.
The tricky point is where Fowler fits into the picture.  They’re currently fourth in the Ark Valley conference but ninth in the RPI standings.  Based on the seeding process, Holly must come off the board before Fowler enters the discussion since the Wildcats are currently higher in the league standings.  Plus, Holly should be seeded higher since they won the head-to-head battle.
Geography also plays a roll in where we place the Grizzlies.  We drop them to 14th and behind Sargent and Simla even though they’re above them in the RPI.  Fowler seems to be the best pairing travel wise for Mancos with Sargent a better setup with Rangely for the same reason.
Front Range Christian could also be seeded much higher than 16th as a conference champion but their low RPI (#22) and Strength of Schedule (#38) will hurt them in any discussion.  The Falcons also have losses to Byers by 34 points and Vail Christian by 12.  Byers is currently last in the rugged Plains conference with Vail Christian sitting third in the Northwest.
Another concern could be round two where if our higher seeds win, the matchups could include major road trips involving Caliche-Mancos and Hoehne-Rangely.  For that reason, we could easily swap Mancos and Hoehne in the third and fourth spot or flipping Rangely-Caliche which could limit travel in round two as well.  Travel issues past round one though have not been a concern of committees in the past.