As part of our series on projecting the boys’ basketball post-season, our focus shifts to Class 3A.  The post-season begins with district tournaments later this month with the top two finishers from each earning an automatic berth to the 32-team state field.  The remaining spots are determined by RPI standings at the end of the season.
District champs earn the right to host the first two rounds of the state tournament if they finish in the top 16 of RPI.  The remaining open host slots are awarded to teams based on RPI numbers.
To begin our projections, we look at our selections for district champions.  They are based on current standings and if there is a tie, we make our own predictions.
District Champions

  • Frontier: DSST-Montview
  • Patriot: Resurrection Christian
  • Metro: Lutheran
  • Tri Peaks: Vanguard
  • Intermountain: Alamosa
  • Western Slope: Coal Ridge
  • Confluence: DSST-Byers

Next up are the choices for teams we believe will finish second in district play and thus earn automatic berths in the state bracket.  Again these selections are based on current standings or again if there is a tie, we make the decision.
Other Automatic Qualifiers (2nd place teams)

  • Frontier: Sheridan
  • Patriot: Sterling
  • Metro: Faith Christian
  • Tri Peaks: Manitou Springs
  • Intermountain: Centauri
  • Western Slope: Gunnison
  • Confluence: DSST-Green Valley

Using RPI standings from Thursday January 6th, we see that six of the seven projected district champions are in the RPI Top 16 so they will serve as host.  But that also leaves two openings for wildcards to get the chance to play at home.  Those spots would go to Centauri and Faith Christian as they’re the two highest ranked teams in RPI that did not win a district crown.  With that in mind, our top eight would be placed in this order.
Top Eight Seeds

  1. Resurrection Christian
  2. Centauri (wildcard)
  3. Vanguard
  4. Faith Christian (wildcard)
  5. Lutheran
  6. Alamosa
  7. Coal Ridge
  8. DSST-Byers

Then with RPI, we place teams in spots 9-32 in the bracket and seed them in this order.  The automatic qualifiers are listed in bold.  Colorado Academy would qualify based on RPI as the Mustangs are 31st this week but they would be bumped in favor of Sheridan as the Rams get in as the #32 seed based on our projected runner-up finish in district tournament play.  The Rams are #39 in RPI.

  1. Sterling
  2. Manitou Springs
  3. Jefferson Academy
  4. Eaton
  5. University
  6. Gunnison
  7. St Mary’s
  8. Englewood
  9. Ridgeview Academy
  10. Manual
  11. Lamar
  12. Aspen
  13. DSST-Green Valley
  14. Strasburg
  15. Fort Lupton
  16. Atlas Prep
  17. Montezuma-Cortez
  18. Grand Valley
  19. Kent Denver
  20. Pagosa Springs
  21. Machebeuf
  22. Middle Park
  23. DSST-Montview
  24. Sheridan

Now we take those seeds and place teams in the bracket.  We list the games in bracket order as the tournament is not reseeded before the Great Eight.
REGION ONE

#1 Resurrection Christian
#32 Sheridan
#16 Englewood
#17 Ridgeview Academy

REGION EIGHT

#8 DSST-Byers
#25 Montezuma Cortez
#9 Sterling
#24 Atlas Prep

REGION FOUR

#4 Faith Christian
#29 Machebeuf (moved)
#13 University
#20 Aspen

REGION FIVE

#5 Lutheran
#28 Pagosa Springs
#12 Eaton
#21 DSST-Green Valley

REGION TWO

#2 Centauri
#31 DSST-Montview
#15 St Mary’s
#18 Manual

REGION SEVEN

#7 Coal Ridge
#26 Grand Valley (moved)
#10 Manitou Springs
#23 Fort Lupton

REGION THREE

#3 Vanguard
#30 Middle Park
#14 Gunnison
#19 Lamar

REGION SIX

#6 Alamosa
#27 Kent Denver
#11 Jefferson Academy
#22 Strasburg

 
Teams can be moved in the bracket to avoid major travel issues and to eliminate league matchups in round one.  In recent history, travel has not been a concern for the bracket committee but Grand Valley and Machebeuf would likely be moved one spot up or down to avoid facing a conference opponent on day one.  We could also argue that Lutheran should be placed ahead of Faith Christian since they easily won the head-to-head matchup.  Alamosa also has a win over Centauri but a jump of four spots from sixth to second for the Moose is not likely.
Please note that these are projections only and will change quite a bit before the playoffs begin.  Many more conference games must be played and district tournaments will end up different than what we project.  RPI numbers will also change dramatically as well.