As part of our series on projecting the girls’ basketball post-season, our focus shifts to Class 3A.  The post-season begins with district tournaments later this month with the top two finishers from each earning an automatic berth to the 32-team state field.  The remaining spots are determined by RPI standings at the end of the season.
District champs earn the right to host the first two rounds of the state tournament if they finish in the top 16 of RPI.  The remaining open host slots are awarded to teams based on RPI numbers.
To begin our projections, we look at our selections for district champions.  They are based on current standings and if there is a tie, we make our own predictions.
District Champions

  • Frontier: Academy
  • Patriot: University
  • Metro: Lutheran
  • Tri Peaks: St Mary’s
  • Intermountain: Pagosa Springs
  • Western Slope: Delta
  • Confluence: Riverdale Ridge

Next up are the choices for teams we believe will finish second in district play and thus earn automatic berths in the state bracket.  Again, these selections are based on current standings or again if there is a tie, we make the decision.
Other Automatic Qualifiers (2nd place teams)

  • Frontier: Middle Park
  • Patriot: Eaton
  • Metro: Jefferson Academy
  • Tri Peaks: Vanguard
  • Intermountain: Centauri
  • Western Slope: Moffat County
  • Confluence: Eagle Ridge Academy

Using RPI standings from Thursday January 6th, we see that six of the seven projected district champions are in the RPI Top 16 so they will serve as host.  The exception is Riverdale Ridge.  The Ravens are #21 in RPI and would not earn the right host even with a district title at this point.  With that in mind, two wildcards would earn host benefits and those spots would go to Vanguard and Centauri as they sit 2-3 in RPI standings.  Our top eight seeds would be in this order.
Top Eight Seeds

  1. St Mary’s
  2. Vanguard
  3. Centauri
  4. Delta
  5. Lutheran
  6. Pagosa Springs
  7. University
  8. Academy

Then with RPI, we place teams in spots 9-32 in the bracket and seed them in this order.  The automatic qualifiers are listed in bold.  Colorado Academy and Florence would lose spots in the field as they would be bumped by automatic qualifiers Eagle Ridge Academy and Middle Park.  Both are picks by us to finish second in their district tournament and thus would receive direct spots in the field.  Eagle Ridge is #34 in RPI and Middle Park #38.

  1. Alamosa
  2. Eaton
  3. Platte Valley
  4. Manitou Springs
  5. Skyview Academy
  6. Cedaredge
  7. Grand Valley
  8. Moffat County
  9. Jefferson Academy
  10. Estes Park
  11. Brush
  12. Liberty Common
  13. Riverdale Ridge
  14. Buena Vista
  15. La Junta
  16. Resurrection Christian
  17. Faith Christian
  18. Ellicott
  19. Trinidad
  20. Roaring Fork
  21. Coal Ridge
  22. Machebeuf
  23. Eagle Ridge Academy
  24. Middle Park

Now we take those seeds and place teams in the bracket.  We list the games in bracket order as the tournament is not reseeded before the Great Eight.
REGION ONE

#1 St Mary’s
#32 Middle Park
#16 Moffat County
#17 Jefferson Academy

REGION EIGHT

#8 Academy
#25 Faith Christian
#9 Alamosa
#24 Resurrection Christian

REGION FOUR

#4 Delta
#29 Coal Ridge (moved)
#13 Skyview Academy
#20 Liberty Common

REGION FIVE

#5 Lutheran
#28 Roaring Fork
#12 Manitou Springs
#21 Riverdale Ridge

REGION TWO

#2 Vanguard
#31 Eagle Ridge Academy
#15 Grand Valley
#18 Estes Park

REGION SEVEN

#7 University
#26 Ellicott
#10 Eaton
#23 La Junta

REGION THREE

#3 Centauri
#30 Machebeuf
#14 Cedaredge
#19 Brush

REGION SIX

#6 Pagosa Springs
#27 Trinidad
#11 Platte Valley
#22 Buena Vista

 
Teams can be moved in the bracket to avoid major travel issues and to eliminate league matchups in round one.  In recent history, travel has not been a concern for the bracket committee so we won’t look at those.  Concerning district conflicts, the bracket above has just one and that involves Coal Ridge being paired with Delta.  On head-to-head matchups, Pagosa Springs likely deserves a spot ahead of Centauri since they won the first league matchup but the committee is not likely to move the Pirates up that many spots.  Plus the two teams could easily play twice again before the state bracket is announced.
Please note that these are projections only and will change quite a bit before the playoffs begin.  Many more conference games must be played and district tournaments will end up different than what we project.  RPI numbers will also change dramatically as well.