Anxiety abounds this week as the regular season for small-school football comes to an end. While those teams in the top 12 of the CHSAA Selection and Seeding Index can breathe a little easier in general, seeing one’s program in that 13-through-17 range raises the blood pressure. Even winning in the final week, while helpful, doesn’t guarantee another go-round in the season.
With that said, here’s a breakdown of bubble teams among the four smaller classifications with bracket reveals looming.
Class 2A
Index ratings heading into the weekend: 13. Pagosa Springs (5-3); 14. Montezuma-Cortez (6-2); 15. Alamosa (5-3); 16. The Academy (5-3); 17. Kent Denver (5-3).
Others in the mix: University (5-3).
The lowdown: With Kent Denver still in the mix for a league title, it really gets interesting in 2A. The Sun Devils play Elizabeth and even with a win would still need help from Bennett to gain the East league championship and an automatic bid into the playoffs. The Academy plays 2-6 Brush, giving the Wildcats the edge in that battle for the No. 16 slot if Kent doesn’t get the help it needs. Pagosa also plays Alamosa this weekend, giving the Mean Moose an advantage in holding onto a slot because a loss against a higher-rated team should not drop them too far in Index points. Alamosa is still in a league-title scenario, with a lot of help. University can’t be completely counted out, still with a chance to finish at 6-3 and with a decent Index rating if it beats Resurrection Christian on Thursday night.
Class 1A
Index ratings heading into the weekend: 13. Yuma (4-4); 14. Monte Vista (6-2); 15. Peyton (6-2); 16. North Fork (5-3); 17. Platte Valley (3-5).
Others in the mix: None.
The lowdown: Monte Vista is in a tough spot, having two wins by forfeit and a Friday game against Centauri to determine the league champion. The Pirates could conceivably slip out of the top 16 with a bad loss and some bad luck, though Platte Valley has a tough game against Highland to finish out its schedule and therefore would likely have a tough time moving up. Peyton also has a forfeit win on its account and definitely can’t afford a slip-up against Ellicott (3-5). North Fork seems to have a strong enough case to stay where it’s at, and the Miners have a favorable final-week matchup against No. 26 Roaring Fork on Friday.
8-man
Index ratings heading into the weekend: 13. Merino (4-4); 14. Elbert (4-4); 15. Dayspring Christian (4-5); 16. St. Mary’s (5-3); 17. Rangely (5-4).
Others in the mix: Clear Creek (6-2), Front Range Christian (4-4)
The lowdown: This classification could get weird, as there are a lot of teams in the 20s on the Index that could finish at .500 or better and still not get in. Rangely and Dayspring have already played out their schedules and will wait on other results to flood in; meanwhile, a team like Clear Creek needs to win its league championship to get in. The No. 18 Golddiggers play Front Range Christian for the outright Central league title, which means that even the Falcons can get in despite their current No. 24 Index number. St. Mary’s is the pure definition of a bubble team, as a loss against Byers this week would likely push the Pirates out of a spot. (Even if Elbert lost this week, Elbert would be more likely to stay in the playoffs because of a head-to-head win against St. Mary’s).
6-man
Index ratings heading into the weekend: 13. Cheraw (5-4); 14. Primero (6-2); 15. Kit Carson (4-4); 16. Prairie (4-5); 17. Kiowa (5-4).
Others in the mix: none.
The lowdown: It doesn’t appear there will be much movement here, as Cheraw, Prairie and Kiowa (and even No. 18 Peetz) have already played out their schedules. Kit Carson is likely the most obvious candidate for a must-win week, but the Wildcats do in fact have an uphill climb for said win, having to travel to play 6-2 Granada on Friday.