It’s a little different look for our week six spring football preview as we focus on playoff positioning. We go through each class with projected pairings based on where teams sit in the Colorado Preps composite rankings and then look at the final week schedule and how results may change those pairings.
The CHSAA football committee will gather on Sunday to finalize rankings, determine playoff qualifiers and then seed teams into the bracket. Eight teams qualify in each class with the state championship games set for May 13-15 at CSU-Pueblo.
Photo is provided by Khayla Garrison / Trinidad Chronicle News
EIGHT MAN
Projected Parings
- #1 Hoehne – BYE
- #4 Las Animas vs #5 Plateau Valley
- #2 Front Range Christian vs #7 Custer County
- #3 John Mall vs #6 Justice
Final Week Schedule
Hoehne at Las Animas (Friday)
Plateau Valley at Front Range Christian (Saturday)
John Mall at Justice (Saturday)
Custer County – BYE
Notes
With the final week schedule, we don’t see much of a change from the projected playoffs following results from week five. Maybe the key spots to look at are Las Animas (.584) and Plateau Valley (.507) at numbers four and five. Both are underdogs this week as the Trojans meet Hoehne and the Cowboys go up against Front Range Christian. A win by either team could push them up farther the seed ladder but if both come up short, they likely stay in the same order. That’s key for Las Animas as staying in the fourth spot allows them to play at home in round one.
A Hoehne (1.00) win locks up the number one berth and the Farmers could even stay there with a loss since they’ve beaten both Front Range Christian (.756) and John Mall (.738) . John Mall missed a chance to reach second as they had to cancel their game with Front Range Christian Tuesday night due to COVID. We’re not sure of their status for the final week but the Panthers must play against Justice to be playoff eligible.
CLASS 2A
Projected Parings
- #1 Flatirons Academy vs #8 Clear Creek
- #4 Manitou Springs vs #5 Manual
- #2 Buena Vista vs #7 St Mary’s
- #3 Estes Park vs #6 Grand Valley
Final Week Schedule
Ellicott at Flatirons Academy (Friday)
Manitou Springs at Manual (Friday)
Grand Valley at Roaring Fork (Friday)
St Mary’s at Clear Creek (Friday)
Buena Vista at Estes Park (Saturday)
Notes
Quite a few changes can occur in the playoff bracket over the final two days of the season. Flatirons Academy (.982) and Buena Vista (.938) have been in a tight battle for the top spot all season and the Bison have a small lead going into week six. But Buena Vista appears to have a better chance at boosting their schedule strength against Estes Park (.795) than Flatirons Academy can against winless Ellicott (.113). So, it’s a good bet that Buena Vista becomes number one and Flatirons falls to two if both are winners this week.
The top three spots become interesting if Estes Park knocks off Buena Vista. The Bobcats are in third place but a head-to-head win this week should boost them past the Demons in the standings and leave Flatirons Academy in the number one spot.
Manitou Springs (.669) and Manual (.553) are seeded fourth and fifth currently and their matchup this weekend should determine which club gets the final home playoff game. Manitou Springs has a nice cushion in points right now so they will be favored. Should the Mustangs grab the win, they should end up fourth and then Manual could drop to sixth if Grand Valley (.532) also beats Roaring Fork as expected. Manual and Grand Valley are separated by about .02 points going into the weekend. Should Manual upset Manitou Springs, then the Thunderbolts likely jump to fourth with Manitou sliding to fifth and Grand Valley staying sixth.
St Mary’s (.401) and Clear Creek (.290) are currently seventh and eighth and should stay in those spots. The order will be determined by their outcome on Friday night.
CLASS 3A
Projected Parings
- #1 Glenwood Springs vs #8 Coal Ridge
- #4 Rifle vs #5 Academy
- #2 Classical Academy vs #7 Aspen
- #3 Basalt vs #6 Sand Creek
Final Week Schedule
Classical Academy at Denver West (Thursday)
Kent Denver at Sand Creek (Friday)
Steamboat Springs at Rifle (Friday)
Aspen at Coal Ridge (Friday)
Glenwood Springs at Salida (Friday)
Littleton at Faith Christian (Saturday)
Academy at Northfield (Saturday)
Basalt at Montezuma Cortez (Saturday)
Notes
Since Glenwood Springs (.982) and Classical Academy (.922) face opponents with a combined record of 1-7, it’s highly reasonable to project staying in the two top spots of the playoff bracket. Glenwood leads TCA by .06 points and the gap should stay somewhat the same if both are winners as expected this weekend. Basalt (.867) also seems to have a wide enough gap over Rifle to remain in third regardless of how they fare at Montezuma Cortez. The Longhorns are favored there plus they have a head-to-head win over Rifle that should boost them in the seeding process.
The tightest races seem to be Rifle-Academy for the fourth and fifth seeds and Aspen-Coal Ridge-Northfield for spots seven through nine. Rifle (.774) leads Academy (.729) by .05 points so a win over Steamboat Springs should keep them number four and allow them to stay at home in round one. If Rifle wins, then Academy should stay fifth by beating Northfield but that won’t be easy against a Northfield club battling for a playoff berth. The Nighthawks (.501) are currently ninth but trail Aspen (.512) by just .01 in the race for the seventh. Coal Ridge is in between at .504. Northfield’s chances are boosted by the fact that Coal Ridge and Aspen collide this week. That winner should qualify for the playoffs but the loser may be passed by Northfield especially if the Nighthawks upset Academy.
Sand Creek hosts Kent Denver in another key game. The Scorpions seem to be comfortable at number six. We don’t see them falling any farther and may only move up with a win if Academy is beaten by Northfield.
CLASS 4A
Projected Parings
- #1 Thomas Jefferson vs #8 Aurora Central
- #4 George Washington vs #5 Kennedy
- #2 Harrison vs #7 Gateway
- #3 Falcon vs #6 Centaurus
Final Week Schedule
Aurora Central at Gateway (Thursday)
Skyview at Sierra (Thursday)
Denver North at Thomas Jefferson (Friday)
Falcon at Harrison (Friday)
Centaurus at George Washington (Friday)
Kennedy at Lincoln (Saturday)
Notes
Two key games are on the final week schedule as Harrison hosts Falcon and Aurora Central goes to Gateway. Harrison (.848) and Falcon (.837) are in a very tight contest with George Washington (.807) for seeds two through four. Since both teams are already ahead of GW in the race, the Harrison-Falcon winner should end up at number two. The loser could fall to four if George Washington gets by Centaurus. George Washington could also stay in the top four with a loss as they have nearly a a full tenth of a point lead over fifth place Kennedy. Kennedy could lose some points based on schedule strength since they close with winless Lincoln.
Gateway (.560) and Aurora Central (.528) are currently seventh and eighth in composite rankings and they have enough of a cushion over 9th place Denver North (.412) to feel good about a place in the bracket. The winner of their head-to-head contest though should bump to seventh with the loser dropping to eighth. The winner may also have a chance to catch and pass Centaurus for the sixth seed if the Warriors come up short to GW.
Thomas Jefferson (.993) appears set as the top overall playoff seed and Kennedy (.709) seems locked in at number five.
CLASS 5A
Projected Parings
- #1 Denver South vs #8 Denver East
- #4 Boulder vs #5 Rangeview
- #2 Vista Peak vs #7 Far Northeast
- #3 Fort Collins vs #6 Westminster
Final Week Schedule
Denver South at Hinkley (Thursday)
Westminster at Fort Collins (Friday)
Boulder at Adams City (Friday)
Denver East at Vista Peak (Friday)
Northglenn at Mountain Range (Friday)
Rangeview at Far Northeast (Friday)
Notes
It appears the most interesting race in the final week involves the final playoff spot. Denver East (.458) is currently in eighth but Northglenn (.423) is well within range of catching the Angels. Denver East is the underdog to Vista Peak so a loss by the Angels could open the door for the Norse provided they get by Mountain Range. Mountain Range (.379) is 10th in the Colorado Preps composite poll and they could get involved in the race for eighth but the gap behind Denver East is a big one (.08).
Spots six and seven are also tight between Westminster (.600) and Far Northeast (.596). Westminster has a tough trip to Fort Collins while Far Northeast looks to take out Rangeview. Should one team win and the other end up short, the winner could easily take the sixth spot in the bracket.
The remaining spots could be locked in regardless of how results end up in the final week. Denver South (.996) has good spacing from Vista Peak (.903) plus the Ravens beat the Bison just last week. More than likely, they are the top two seeds in the playoffs. Fort Collins (.843) also has a nice lead over Boulder (.769) in the race for third and fourth. Rangeview (.698) is probably enough ahead of Westminster (.600) to remain fifth.