1A BOYS REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

Monday brings us another round of projections for the Class 1A boys regional tournaments.  As we’ve done for the past few weeks, Colorado Preps picks the district qualifiers from each bracket and then pairs them up for the regional tournaments that will determine the eight state tournament teams.
 

REGION ONE

The top two teams from Districts 1 and 8 meet in cross divisional pairings with winners in both games advancing to the state tournament.
We did see a change in our top four this week as Front Range Baptist moves ahead of Cornerstone Christian for the runner-up spot in District 8.  Front Range Baptist collected a very impressive win over Shining Mountain while Cornerstone Christian was upset by Denver Waldorf.  More changes could occur this week as the top three teams in our rankings for the district square off.  Denver Jewish Day meets Cornerstone Christian on Monday night and Front Range Baptist hosts Denver Jewish Day on Friday.
No changes can be found in our District 1 standings as DeBeque and Ouray continue to hold down the top two spots.  Ouray kept their lead on North Park based on results over Caprock Academy.  Both played Caprock last week with Ouray winning by 34 points and North Park by 17.
Below is our projected regional tournament bracket.  We do not compare to RPI standings as those numbers are meaningless to the pairings.  The bracket is based solely on district tournament results.

Colorado Preps Projected Pairings

#1 DeBeque vs #2 Front Range Baptist

#1 Denver Jewish Day vs #2 Ouray

 

REGION TWO

The top three teams from Districts 4, 5 and 7 advance to the regional tournament where they will be placed in a nine-team bracket.  The top three seeds at regionals earn a first-round bye.
We have not made any changes in our picks for which teams will advance from the three districts and we’ve kept the seeding order the same.
Below we have our qualifiers from each district in order by finish and then we lay out regional brackets based on our thoughts and compare them to RPI standings.  For RPI, we use our qualifiers and standings from Monday January 29th.

District 4

District 5

District 7

#1 Peetz #1 Arickaree/Woodlin #1 Genoa Hugo
#2 Heritage Christian #2 Otis #2 Elbert
#3 Longmont Christian #3 Stratton/Liberty #3 Kiowa

 

Colorado Preps Projected Pairings

#6 Genoa Hugo vs #7 Stratton/Liberty (winner plays #1 Peetz)

#5 Otis vs #8 Elbert (winner plays #2 Heritage Christian)

#4 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #9 Kiowa (winner plays #3 Longmont Christian)

RPI Projected Pairings

#6 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #7 Stratton/Liberty (winner plays #1 Heritage Christian)

#5 Otis vs #8 Elbert (winner plays #2 Peetz)

#4 Genoa Hugo vs #9 Kiowa (winner plays #3 Longmont Christian)

In the RPI scenario, first round pairings would likely be swapped to avoid district meetings between Stratton/Liberty-Arickaree/Woodlin and Genoa Hugo-Kiowa.  They basically would need to drop Stratton/Liberty down to ninth and bump Elbert and Kiowa up one spot to make it work.
The RPI gap is very wide between the top three and the rest of the bracket so it appears that Heritage Christian, Peetz and Longmont Christian are solid as the top three choices.  They sit 4-5-6 in the RPI standings on Monday with Genoa Hugo next on the list at #22.  Otis is 29th with the remaining teams between 34 and 45th.
Our pairings lay out nicely as they avoid first round meetings between district rivals and also use head-to-head results to determine the order.  For example, Genoa Hugo is listed ahead of Stratton/Liberty since they beat the Knighted Eagles earlier this season.
The most important game this week is set for Friday when Arickaree/Woodlin and Otis meet up.  Next Tuesday is a critical game between Heritage Christian and Longmont Christian.  Heritage won the first meeting between the clubs.  Peetz is in good shape to finish the regular season at 19-0 with a second meeting against Fleming on the 13th likely the only remaining hurdle.
 

REGION THREE

The top three teams from Districts 2, 3 and 6 advance to the regional tournament where they will be placed in a nine-team bracket.  The top three seeds at regionals earn a first-round bye.
Some slight changes in our rankings this week based on head-to-head results from the past seven days.  McClave moves into our top three of District 2 as they beat Cheraw 50-37 last week.  Cheraw was our choice at #3 before the loss.  Sangre De Cristo also moved ahead of Creede in District 6 as the T-Birds edged the Miners 67-66.  They’ve split two meetings this year but as our history, the team with the most recent win gets the nod as the higher seed.
Below we have our qualifiers from each district in order by finish and then we lay out regional brackets based on our thoughts and compare them to RPI standings.  For RPI, we use our qualifiers and standings from Monday January 29th.

District 2

District 3

District 6

#1 Cheyenne Wells #1 Holly #1 Sangre De Cristo
#2 Kit Carson #2 South Baca #2 Creede
#3 McClave #3 Walsh #3 Sierra Grande

 

Colorado Preps Projected Regional Pairings

#6 Kit Carson vs #7 Sierra Grande (winner plays #1 Holly)

#5 South Baca vs #8 McClave (winner plays #2 Sangre De Cristo)

#4 Cheyenne Wells vs #9 Walsh (winner plays #3 Creede)

RPI Projected Pairings

#6 Kit Carson vs #7 Sierra Grande (winner plays #1 Holly)

#5 South Baca vs #8 Walsh (winner plays #2 Creede)

#4 Cheyenne Wells vs #9 McClave (winner plays #3 Sangre De Cristo)

For the RPI bracket, Walsh and McClave would likely be exchanged to avoid district pairings in the first round but otherwise they are very similar to what we project.
Looking to this week, it’s a big stretch for Sierra Grande.  They meet Cotopaxi and Creede on back-to-back nights.  Wins in both keep them tied with Sangre De Cristo atop the Southern Peaks division.  Cotopaxi is our pick at #4 in that bracket so a win by the Pirates puts them in position to move into our top three next week.
 

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