Entering the final week of regular season in 1A football, there are several conference championships still up for grabs. Games this weekend will determine the champions but results will also greatly impact the playoff bracket. Official pairings are set for release on Sunday and right now there are several possible scenarios and we will try to lay them out here.
First some seeding notes. Over the past couple of weeks, we have presented the thought that conference finish will also play a role in laying out the bracket. That’s incorrect. It stated in the CHSAA Football bulletin that the seeding process involves placing league champions on the board for consideration for the top overall seed and once a team was picked, the second place club from the conference of the number seed joined the remaining champions and a number two seed was selected. Was told by a committee member this week that this process is no longer in place.
Because of this mistake, our brackets may appear to be different than in week’s past. We also used head to head as a deciding factor as well but we were told that teams can only be moved for head-to-head if they’re touching along the seed line. If they’re separated by more than one seed, then the teams cannot be moved. In other words, if the 4th seed beat the 2nd seed, no movement will occur but the 4th seed would be moved ahead of the 3rd seed if they won the head-to-head matchup.
And of course the third major change involves the use of more data or rankings from across the state. RPI will be used to determine the 16 teams that make the field but the committee can then use a formula combining MaxPreps, Packard, RPI and the CHSAA polls to place teams in the bracket. We post those numbers in our weekly composite rankings and we feel they will be heavily used to determine the top eight seeds with RPI in place to finish up the pairings. And of course, once teams are placed in the brackets, teams seeded 9-16 could be moved to avoid conference matchups in round one or to reduce travel. Most of the time, these teams are not moved up or down more than position.
Now that we have that cleared up, there are several head-to-head matchups this week that will greatly impact the bracket; Limon-Holyoke in the North Central, Meeker-Hotchkiss on the Western Slope and Florence-CS Christian in the Tri Peaks. Winners of each are league champions. Strasburg must also beat Flatirons Academy and Centauri must take out Ignacio for conference crowns but for our bracket projections, we have the Indians and Falcons getting those wins. We also go with Meeker to beat Hotchkiss since they won an earlier contest by 21 points.
One other factor involves the Foothills league as that champion will not finish in the Top 16 but still earn a berth. The Platte Canyon-Manual game on Thursday will decide the title and we believe the winner will earn the 16th seed regardless of which team wins. But the winner will bump the 16th ranked team in RPI and right now that club is Crowley County.
With so many factors still up in the air, we went a bit more in-depth this week and came up with several potential brackets based on various results. They are very similar at this point with results impacting the top five seeds.
Bracket #1
This is based on wins by Holyoke and Colorado Springs Christian. With these results, Holyoke stays ahead of Limon in the bracket with the Badgers falling behind Strasburg due to the head-to-head loss. Colorado Springs Christian says ahead of Centauri but the Falcons then bump ahead of Florence since they beat the Huskies in week nine.
- #1 Holyoke vs Foothills Champion (Platte Canyon/Manual)
- #8 Hotchkiss vs #9 Highland
- #4 Meeker vs #13 Flatirons Academy
- #5 Colorado Springs Christian vs #12 Yuma
- #3 Limon vs #14 Rye
- #6 Centauri vs #11 Buena Vista
- #7 Florence vs #10 Wray
- #2 Strasburg vs #15 Rocky Ford
We have a good bracket here as travel is reduced for almost every club and there is not a conference matchup in round one.
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Bracket #2
This is based on wins by Limon and Florence with again Meeker, Strasburg and Centauri all posting wins as well. Limon moves ahead of Holyoke because of the head-to-head win but then Strasburg jumps to the top overall seed since they beat Limon. Centauri also makes a bigger jump toward the top as we move them ahead of both Florence and CSCS since they beat Florence and the Huskies beat CSCS.
#1 Strasburg vs Foothills Champion (Platte Canyon/Manual)
- #8 Hotchkiss vs #9 Highland
- #4 Meeker vs #13 Flatirons Academy
- #5 Centauri vs #12 Yuma
- #3 Holyoke vs #14 Rye
- #6 Florence vs #11 Buena Vista
- #7 Colorado Springs Christian vs #10 Wray
- #2 Limon vs #15 Rocky Ford
Again, this is a good bracket with limited travel. Wray’s trip is shorter as they would go to Colorado Springs instead of Florence. Yuma would have more miles on the bus with a trip to Centauri but they could change spots with Buena Vista to alleviate that issue. Otherwise, not much movement would take place.
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Bracket #3
This is based on wins by Limon and Colorado Springs Christian the two key games of the week. The Badgers again move ahead of Holyoke but stay behind Strasburg. Colorado Springs Christian and Centauri both jump above Florence.
- #1 Strasburg vs Foothills Champ (Platte Canyon/Manual)
- #8 Hotchkiss vs #9 Highland
- #4 Meeker vs #13 Flatirons Academy
- #5 Colorado Springs Christian vs #12 Yuma
- #3 Holyoke vs #14 Rye
- #6 Centauri vs #11 Buena Vista
- #7 Florence vs #10 Wray
- #2 Limon vs #15 Rocky Ford
Not much change from earlier brackets and it shapes up well travel wise. Maybe even better than others with Buena Vista going to Centauri and Yuma to Colorado Springs Christian. Wray would have a rematch with Florence from last year in the opening round.
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Bracket #4
This is based on wins by Holyoke and Florence. Holyoke goes back to the number one seed with Strasburg second and Limon third. Centauri again jumps ahead of both Florence and CS Christian.
- #1 Holyoke vs Foothills Champion (Platte Canyon/Manual)
- #8 Hotchkiss vs #9 Highland
- #4 Meeker vs #13 Flatirons Academy
- #5 Centauri vs #12 Yuma
- #3 Limon vs #14 Rye
- #6 Florence vs #11 Buena Vista
- #7 Colorado Springs Christian vs #10 Wray
- #2 Strasburg vs #15 Rocky Ford
Again very similar to other brackets with a change needed in the 6-11 game as Florence and Buena Vista are in the same conference (Tri Peaks). Flipping the Demons with Yuma would solve that issue and actually reduce travel a bit overall.
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One change that could happen in every bracket is that Highland moves into the top eight with a loss by Hotchkiss. Could easily see those two teams still meet in round one but a flip in spots would move that game to Ault as the Huskies would host. The Bulldogs of course can move up higher if they get by Meeker. Wray and Yuma could also exchange spots in the bracket based on who wins the Harvest Cup this weekend. We may also need to start over with projections if Centauri, Strasburg or Meeker comes up short this week.
