1A GIRLS REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

Changes can be found in several districts as we again project out the 1A girls’ basketball regional tournament field.  Movement can be found in Districts 3, 5 and 8 based on results from the past week.  A few important games are set for this week with even more on tap over the final two weeks of the regular season.
 

REGION ONE

The top two teams from Districts 1 and 8 qualify for the regional tournaments and they play two cross bracket games to determine which teams head to the state tournament.  Two direct matchups in each district this week could help decide the pecking order as Dove Creek meets Nucla and Front Range Baptist plays Cornerstone Christian.
The second game is likely more important as Front Range Baptist and Cornerstone Christian, in our minds, are the top two teams in the district.  Cornerstone Christian moved up the ladder by beating Belleview Christian 41-39 last week and can take over the top spot with another win over Front Range Baptist this week.  Right now, the Falcons are second.
Dove Creek beat Ouray 50-40 in the first meeting so they’re slightly ahead of the Trojans in District 1, so the rematch could change the order.  But both Dove Creek and Ouray are still behind North Park and DeBeque in our regional bracket.  North Park is the top seed based on an earlier win over DeBeque.

Colorado Preps Projected Pairings

#1 North Park vs #2 Cornerstone Christian

#1 Front Range Baptist vs #2 DeBeque

 

REGION TWO

The top three teams from Districts 4, 5 and 7 advances to a nine-team regional tournament that is seeded through RPI standings.  The top three teams at the regional tournament earn first round byes and the bracket could be altered to avoid teams from the same district from playing each other in round one.
Fleming took control of the District 4 chase as they rallied to beat Briggsdale for a second time this season.  The Wildcats also moved ahead of the Falcons in the RPI standings this week.  Briggsdale and Heritage Christian play a very important game on Saturday and that outcome could help determine spots two and three in the regional bracket.  Weldon Valley is 13th in RPI overall and would be the fourth overall seed in the regional tournament based on those standings this week but the Warriors may not even qualify.
Idalia avenged an 18-point loss to Arickaree/Woodlin by winning game two between the clubs last week.  That result allowed us to move the Wolves into the top spot for District 5 but the race between spots 1-4 in this district are very tight.  Arickaree/Woodlin, Otis and Flagler/Hi Plains are not far behind the Wolves.  Otis the focus team this week as the Bulldogs can move up the rankings by beating Arickaree/Woodlin on Friday and Flagler/Hi Plains on Saturday.
District 7 remains in the same order with Genoa Hugo, Kiowa and Edison serving as our qualifiers.  Genoa Hugo has won five straight including a 61-42 win over Kiowa last week.  Kiowa and Edison meet on the 16th.  Edison stays in the top three based on a win over Elbert from earlier in January.
Our list of qualifiers from each district.

DISTRICT 4 DISTRICT 5 DISTRICT 7
#1 Fleming #1 Idalia #1 Genoa Hugo
#2 Briggsdale #2 Arickaree/Woodlin #2 Kiowa
#3 Heritage Christian #3 Otis #3 Edison

 

Colorado Preps Projected Pairings

#4 Idalia vs #9 Edison (winner meets #3 Heritage Christian)

#5 Genoa Hugo vs #8 Otis (winner meets #2 Briggsdale)

#6 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #7 Kiowa (winner meets #1 Fleming)

 
RPI standings will be used to seed the bracket and using numbers from Tuesday January 30th, the bracket would be seeded in this order.

#1 Fleming

#2 Briggsdale

#3 Heritage Christian

#4 Arickaree/Woodlin

#5 Idalia

#6 Genoa Hugo

#7 Edison

#8 Otis

#9 Kiowa

 
With those seeds, the bracket would appear in this order.  Please note that Edison and Otis would likely exchange positions in the bracket to avoid district matchups in the opening round.

Projected RPI Regional Bracket

#4 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #9 Kiowa (winner plays #3 Heritage Christian)

#5 Idalia vs #8 Otis (winner plays #2 Briggsdale)

#6 Genoa Hugo vs #7 Edison (winner plays #1 Fleming)

There’s little doubt that Fleming, Briggsdale and Heritage Christian will be the top three seeds if they qualify as expected.  Fleming is 5th overall in RPI this week with Briggsdale 9th and Heritage Christian 10th making their matchup on Saturday even more important.  Weldon Valley is 13th in RPI and could also nab a top three seed if they can manage to qualify ahead of the Wildcats, Falcons and Eagles in the district bracket.
Then there is a large gap as Arickaree/Woodlin is next on the RPI list in 20th.  Idalia is #22 and Genoa Hugo 25th so they continue to battle for seeds 4, 5 and 6 in the regional bracket if they all qualify as expected.
 

REGION THREE

The top three teams from Districts 2, 3 and 6 advances to a nine-team regional tournament that is seeded through RPI standings.  The top three teams at the regional tournament earn first round byes and the bracket could be altered to avoid teams from the same district from playing each other in round one.
Common sense tells us that Kit Carson is the overwhelming choice for the top seed from District 2 and the Wildcats should be the top overall regional seed.  But they remain second in the RPI standings behind Kim/Branson so if the bracket was out this week and both clubs qualified as expected, the defending state champions would be the two seed.
Behind Kit Carson is a wild race for spots two and three.  McClave and Cheyenne Wells continue to be our choices this week but Eads and Cheraw could easily supplant the Cardinals and Tigers.  McClave goes to Cheyenne Wells on Thursday in the next game to help determine the district seeding order.
It was a wild weekend inside District 3.  On Friday night, Springfield blasted Holly 74-49 but then the Wildcats turned around and upset Kim/Branson 39-35.  Those two results completely changed the pecking order for seeding as Springfield moved to #1 with Kim/Branson sliding down to third.  Despite the loss, Kim/Branson remains the top overall team in the RPI.  The next very important game comes up on the 13th when Kim/Branson meets Springfield.
Many important contests still remain on the District 6 schedule but none take place this week.  Top seed Sangre De Cristo still has plenty of work to do as they meet Antonito on the 10th, Sierra Grande on the 16th and La Veta on the 17th.  Sierra Grande and La Veta also collide on the 8th so there is time for much more movement before the district tournament.
Here’s a quick list of qualifiers in order by each district.

DISTRICT 2 DISTRICT 3 DISTRICT 6
#1 Kit Carson #1 Springfield #1 Sangre De Cristo
#2 McClave #2 Holly #2 Sierra Grande
#3 Cheyenne Wells #3 Kim/Branson #3 Antonito

 

Colorado Preps Projected Pairings

#4 Holly vs #9 Cheyenne Wells (winner meets #3 Kit Carson)

#5 Kim/Branson vs #8 Antonito (winner meets #2 Sangre De Cristo)

#6 McClave vs #7 Sierra Grande (winner meets #3 Springfield)

 
RPI standings though are drastically different with the teams placed in this order.

#1 Kim/Branson

#2 Kit Carson

#3 Springfield

#4 Antonito

#5 McClave

#6 Sangre De Cristo

#7 Holly

#8 Sierra Grande

#9 Cheyenne Wells

 
With those numbers, the regional bracket lays out quite differently than what we project.

Projected RPI Regional Pairings

#4 Antonito vs #9 Cheyenne Wells (winner plays #3 Springfield)

#5 McClave vs #8 Sierra Grande (winner plays #2 Kit Carson)

#6 Sangre De Cristo vs #7 Holly (winner plays #1 Kim/Branson)

 
It’s interesting to note the depth and talent from the region.  According to the latest RPI standings, the top four teams from this region are also the top four teams in the entire state.  Kim/Branson is #1 in statewide rankings with Kit Carson #2, Springfield #3 and Antonito #4.  McClave (6th), Sangre De Cristo (7th) and Holly (8th) are also in the top eight.  Fleming is ranked 5th overall and is the only team from outside the region listed in the top eight of RPI statewide.
Also, worth noting is that La Veta, Cotopaxi, Eads and South Baca are four teams that we don’t have on our list of regional qualifiers that currently sit in the top 16 of RPI.  The numbers again show off the depth of the districts which should call for exciting games throughout the post-season.

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