Going to be later tonight before we determine the final two qualifiers to the 1A boys state basketball tournament but instead of waiting, we want to present some ideas on how the girls bracket may look like when CHSAA makes the official announcement on Sunday.  Please remember that RPI standings from the end of the regular season will be used as the main data point but other items such as head-to-head matchups, common opponents and district finishes could come into play by the committee.

We use all those factors to project the pairings for the girls bracket.  We will update with thoughts on the boys division once all eight qualifiers have been determined.

A reminder that these are for projection purposes only.  Official brackets for both tournaments will be released on Sunday.  Tournament quarterfinals start at 8:45am Thursday morning in Greeley.

 

GIRLS

Using RPI from the end of the regular season, the eight state qualifiers are placed initially in this order.

  1. Briggsdale
  2. McClave
  3. Fleming
  4. Flatirons Academy
  5. Dove Creek
  6. Sangre De Cristo
  7. Cheyenne Wells
  8. Lone Star

But this will not be the final order for seeding as head-to-head and district matchups come heavily into play.  First off, Flatirons Academy has a win over Fleming so those two teams will be swapped in the seed ladder.  The same for Sangre De Cristo and Dove Creek.  Dove Creek has just one loss but it came back in week one to Sangre De Cristo so the committee likely changes that order as well.  And the third point involves McClave and Cheyenne Wells.  As the #2 and #7 seeds, they would be paired up in the quarterfinals but since they’re in the same league and district, the committee will likely drop Cheyenne Wells to eighth and bump Lone Star one position.

With those details in mind, here’s our projected bracket.

  • #1 Briggsdale vs #8 Cheyenne Wells
  • #4 Fleming vs #5 Sangre De Cristo
  • #3 Flatirons Academy vs #6 Dove Creek
  • #2 McClave vs #7 Lone Star

Flatirons Academy and Dove Creek are from the same regional but they did not square off in the bracket so we assume the committee will leave that matchup intact.

 

BOYS

Honestly don’t have a good feel about what the committee will do with the state pairings tomorrow.  Class 1A has been crazy much of the year and we think that trend will continue into the state tournament.  Probably a good thought that maybe six or seven of the teams involved have enough talent to get the big trophy on Saturday night.  And with that in mind, designing a bracket is difficult.

To be honest, had Genoa Hugo held on to beat Evangelical Christian, we could have put together a very attractive bracket based on RPI.  It seemed to be balanced but that’s not the case as Evangelical Christian came roaring back for the win.

With the eight qualifiers now set, this is the order of RPI based on end of season numbers.  Again, Class 1A has not tallied fresh RPI standings since the end of the regular season and will not before the state pairings are released.

  1. Evangelical Christian
  2. Granada
  3. Sierra Grande
  4. Caprock Academy
  5. Haxtun
  6. McClave
  7. Merino
  8. Dove Creek

If you go straight RPI with the standings, the bracket looks like this:

  • #1 Evangelical Christian vs #8 Dove Creek
  • #4 Caprock Academy vs #5 Haxtun
  • #3 Sierra Grande vs #6 McClave
  • #2 Granada vs #7 Merino

Now we doubt this will be the bracket as there are other factors involved other than just simple RPI.  Sierra Grande is unbeaten on the season and has a win over ECA so the committee could easily move the Panthers into the top spot.  Merino won a district title last week but Haxtun has also won two of three against the Rams so we expect the Bulldogs to stay as the higher seed.

Another question is what to do with McClave-Granada.  Granada has the better RPI and the better overall record than McClave but the Cardinals won two of three matchups over the Bobcats this year.

So let’s try this:

  • #1 Sierra Grande vs #8 Dove Creek
  • #4 Granada vs #5 Haxtun
  • #3 McClave vs #6 Caprock Academy
  • #2 Evangelical Christian vs #7 Merino

That will be our final projected bracket for a couple of reasons.  It balances the districts with McClave and Granada on opposite sides and the same for Merino-Haxtun.  Caprock Academy and Dove Creek are from the West and they are on opposite sides as well.  Sierra Grande takes the top overall seed with the best overall record and a win over Evangelical Christian.  ECA has the number two seed based on end of regular season RPI.