As the girls’ basketball regular season winds down over the next 10 days, Colorado Preps will begin the process of projecting postseason pairings.  We begin in Class 2A and please note that the format will revert back to the 2019 system of district and regional tournaments to determine which eight teams qualify for the state tournament.

The top three teams from each district tournament will advance to the regionals with the remaining eight berths selected as wildcards from RPI.  For our projections, we use current conference standings to determine district champions and where there is more one conference grouped together for a district, the method is RPI.  In case of a tie in conference standings, we use head-to-head results for the first tiebreaker and if the two teams have not played, then RPI is the deciding factor.

So this is our district projections.  We list the projected champions first with the next two qualifiers:

  • DISTRICT 1: Sanford #1 – Sargent & Del Norte
  • DISTRICT 2: Holyoke #1 – Sedgwick County & Wiggins
  • DISTRICT 3: Cedaredge #1 – Mancos & Ignacio
  • DISTRICT 4: Limon #1 – Denver Christian & Front Range Christian
  • DISTRICT 5: Soroco #1 – Meeker & Plateau Valley
  • DISTRICT 6: Rye #1 – Hoehne, Swink
  • DISTRICT 7: Dayspring Christian #1 – Heritage Christian & Gilpin County
  • DISTRICT 8: Peyton #1 – Calhan & Fountain Valley

Some notes on the projections starting in District 1 (Southern Peaks) where Sanford earns the nod over Sargent based on RPI.  Those two share the lead and play this week.  Same scenario in District 7 (Mile High) between Dayspring Christian and Heritage Christian.  They share the lead but Dayspring has the slightly higher RPI but the two match up on the court this week.  Peyton and Calhan are both unbeaten in Black Forest but we gave the Panthers the top spot based on their non-league win over the Bulldogs.  Wray and Wiggins are tied for third in the Lower Platte but Wiggins has the higher RPI.  They also collide this week.

Next in the process is to develop the seed order for the district champions as they will host a regional bracket.  That order is determined by RPI and currently the numbers have our projected district winners in this order.

  1. Holyoke
  2. Sanford
  3. Limon
  4. Soroco
  5. Rye
  6. Cedaredge
  7. Dayspring Christian
  8. Peyton

Our next step involves picking the eight at-large regional berths and again those selections are based on RPI.

  • Akron
  • Center
  • Wray
  • Yuma
  • Olathe
  • Dawson
  • West Grand
  • Fowler

Please note that Monte Vista, Byers, Lotus School & Union Colony Prep are the next four teams so they have plenty of play for over the final ten days of the season.

With our complete list of qualifiers selected, we can now place them in seed order.  Again, district champs are 1-8 based on RPI with spots 9-32 then put in order by RPI.

  1. Holyoke
  2. Sanford
  3. Limon
  4. Soroco
  5. Rye
  6. Cedaredge
  7. Dayspring Christian
  8. Peyton
  9. Sedgwick County
  10. Sargent
  11. Hoehne
  12. Akron
  13. Heritage Christian
  14. Wiggins
  15. Mancos
  16. Meeker
  17. Denver Christian
  18. Gilpin County
  19. Fountain Valley
  20. Center
  21. Wray
  22. Yuma
  23. Swink
  24. Olathe
  25. Front Range Christian
  26. Dawson
  27. Ignacio
  28. West Grand
  29. Fowler
  30. Del Norte
  31. Plateau Valley
  32. Calhan

Then the final step is to place the teams in the bracket by seed and the regional tournament shapes up in this manner.  The eight regional winners would be then reseeded before the state tournament with head-to-head results and league standings also coming into play with RPI.

REGION 1   REGION 5
#1 Holyoke #5 Rye
#32 Calhan #28 West Grand
#16 Meeker #12 Akron
#17 Denver Christian #21 Wray
REGION 2   REGION 6
#2 Sanford #6 Cedaredge
#31 Plateau Valley #27 Ignacio
#15 Mancos #11 Hoehne
#18 Gilpin County #22 Yuma
REGION 3   REGION 7
#3 Limon #7 Dayspring Christian
#30 Del Norte #26 Dawson
#14 Wiggins #10 Sargent
#19 Fountain Valley #23 Swink
REGION 4   REGION 8
#4 Soroco #8 Peyton
#29 Fowler #25 Front Range Christian
#13 Heritage Christian #9 Sedgwick County
#20 Center #24 Olathe

 

Again we true seeded the bracket but there would be changes of course.  Fowler and Del Norte could be changed in spots 29-30 for travel purposes.  Wray would likely be moved away from Akron and a good exchange could be with Center at spot 20.  Ignacio could also be moved away from 27th since they’re in the same district with Cedaredge.  They could bump to #26 and flip with Dawson.  More travel for the Bobcats but Dawson needs a move away from Dayspring Christian since they’re in the same conference.

Of course, the pairings will change quite a bit over the final days of the regular season and then district tournaments never end up as seeded all the way through.  That will change the list of automatic qualifiers which could then upset the wildcard qualifiers as well. Our projects are just that – projections – and should not be considered official.