2A GIRLS REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

There’s not much movement in our Class 2A girls’ basketball regional projections this week.  Most of the top teams held serve in tough matchups last week to hold onto their ranking in our very unofficial polling.
Del Norte collected a nice win over Sanford to maintain the top spot in District 1 but Center beat South Park and that win moved the Vikings into our regional bracket.  They currently sit 4th in District 1.  Yuma kept top billing in District 2 as they overcame an early deficit to beat Wray for a second time this season.  The District 2 bracket is very deep and could easily send all four teams to the state tournament depending on how they pare up in regionals.
Ignacio downed Dolores in the first meeting and they meet again on Tuesday night.  The Bobcats are heavy favorites and that should all but clinch the top district seed.  Telluride seems to be the best choice at number three.  Other than Ignacio and Dolores, the conference has just six total wins and the Miners have four of them.
District 4 sees a good matchup between Limon and Burlington and that outcome could alter the district seedings.  Limon is currently #1 in our bracket with Burlington #3.  Denver Christian is #3.  Soroco is unbeaten in the Western Slope and has important wins over Rangely, Paonia and Vail Christian so the Rams are basically a win over Meeker (16th) away from claiming the top seed.  The rest of the Western Slope is determined by head-to-head results thus far.
In District 6, we kept Swink at #1 despite a recent loss to Fowler.  The teams split two conference meetings but long-term, we feel the Lions will still claim the district crown.  Rocky Ford also beat Fowler in the first meeting but we kept the Grizzlies ahead of the Meloneers for the same reasons.
District 7 is shaping up to be a very good battle between Highland and Clear Creek.  Both teams are 12-2 on the season.  The rest of the district has spent the year beating up on one another so there are several possibilities behind the Huskies and Golddiggers.  Our choices right now are Dayspring Christian and Lyons.
District 8 still has Calhan ahead of Simla based on their earlier win over the Cubs.  They meet again in February so the order could easily change.  Ellicott and CSS are the next two choices.
Here’s a quick list of our qualifiers in each district.
 

DISTRICT 1 DISTRICT 2 DISTRICT 3
#1 Del Norte #1 Yuma #1 Ignacio
#2 Sanford #2 Wray #2 Dolores
#3 Sargent #3 Holyoke #3 Telluride
#4 Center #4 Haxtun
DISTRICT 4 DISTRICT 5 DISTRICT 6
#1 Limon #1 Soroco #1 Swink
#2 Denver Christian #2 Rangely #2 Fowler
#3 Burlington #3 Meeker #3 Rocky Ford
#4 Byers #4 Vail Christian #4 Las Animas
#5 Paonia
DISTRICT 7 DISTRICT 8  
#1 Highland #1 Calhan
#2 Clear Creek #2 Simla
#3 Dayspring Christian #3 Ellicott
#4 Lyons #4 Colorado Springs School

 
Using the RPI from Monday January 29th, we seed the district champions one through eight.  The number next to their ranking is the current RPI standing.

  1. Yuma (#1 in RPI)
  2. Soroco (#4)
  3. Swink (#6)
  4. Limon #8)
  5. Highland (#10)
  6. Del Norte (#12)
  7. Calhan (#13)
  8. Ignacio (#28)

 
Also using RPI, we seed the rest of the regional tournament qualifiers.  The top four “at-large” teams are still in the RPI top 10 and could be favored on the road against host teams with lower RPI numbers.

  1. Denver Christian (#2 in RPI)
  2. Holyoke (#3)
  3. Wray (#5)
  4. Meeker (#7)
  5. Simla
  6. Rangely
  7. Rocky Ford
  8. Vail Christian
  9. Burlington
  10. Fowler
  11. Haxtun
  12. Clear Creek
  13. Colorado Springs School
  14. Dayspring Christian
  15. Lyons
  16. Ellicott
  17. Sanford
  18. Paonia
  19. Sargent
  20. Las Animas
  21. Byers
  22. Dolores
  23. Center
  24. Telluride

 
And to wrap up our projections for the week, we place teams in the bracket.  We produce a true seed and don’t try to move any teams subject to geography.  But more likely, the 15-18 matchup of Santa Fe rivals Rocky Ford and Fowler would be changed and the #4 vs #29 battle between Limon and Byers could likely be altered as well.  Another change would likely involve Del Norte and Sargent in the 6 vs 27 meeting.

REGION 1 REGION 2
#1 Yuma vs #32 Telluride #2 Soroco vs #31 Center
#16 Vail Christian vs #17 Burlington #15 Rocky Ford vs #18 Fowler
REGION 3 REGION 4
#3 Swink vs #30 Dolores #4 Limon vs #29 Byers
#14 Rangely vs #19 Haxtun #13 Simla vs #20 Clear Creek
REGION 5 REGION 6
#5 Highland vs #28 Las Animas #6 Del Norte vs #27 Sargent
#12 Meeker vs #21 Colorado Springs School #11 Wray vs #22 Dayspring Christian
REGION 7 REGION 8
#7 Calhan vs #26 Paonia #8 Ignacio vs #25 Sanford
#10 Holyoke vs #23 Lyons #9 Denver Christian vs #24 Ellicott

 
Notes:  Regional bracket is determined by RPI as district champions earn a top eight seed and then are placed in order by RPI.  The remaining qualifiers are seeded 9-32 but teams slotted 25-32 could be moved for geographical purposes.  The bracket is reseeded again following the conclusion of the regional tournaments.
 

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