This could be a long week for teams sitting on the 3A playoff fence.  The main contest that will help finalize the bracket won’t take place until Saturday afternoon so many post-season wheels won’t be set in motion until it wraps up.  That game is the annual Mountain Bowl clash between Conifer and Evergreen.  Once the winner of that game is known, the playoff picture should clear up quite a bit.  PHOTO BY PAUL DINEEN / OT SPORTSCHEK

Before we look at Saturday’s game and the playoff scenarios that will come from it, let’s first look at the programs that seem be locks for a post-season bid.  Those clubs are Roosevelt, Holy Family, Lutheran, Mead and Durango.  Pueblo South (3-0) should also get into the bracket if they simply play.  And that’s not a done deal completely yet.  The Colts were slated to face Pueblo Central in their regular season finale but the Wildcats initially pulled away forcing South to find another game.  Now it appears that South-Central may indeed be played.  If not, the Colts may get a contest aligned with Vista Ridge.  Regardless of the opponent, Pueblo South must play this week to compete in the required four games to be playoff eligible.

So in our scenario, we get the Colts a game and into the playoffs as the sixth qualifier.  That leaves two spots open with at least five teams still getting some consideration.  As mentioned, the key game is Conifer vs Evergreen Saturday afternoon.  The winner is most likely a playoff team as Conifer is #7 in seed rankings released by CHSAA on Tuesday with Evergreen #10. If Evergreen wins, then both teams may still get in but a Conifer win should eliminate Evergreen as it would be their third loss of the season.

Should Conifer grab the Mountain Bowl trophy, then the eighth and final playoff berth probably comes down to a battle of Fort Morgan and Palisade.  They’re ranked 9-10th in the CHSAA official seeding metrics and are separated by .006 of a point.  Both are favored to win this week as Fort Morgan hosts Summit and Palisade meets Eagle Valley.  Wins by both may keep Fort Morgan slightly ahead of the Bulldogs and into the playoff bracket.

One other possibility is Canon City.  The Tigers are #11 (.593) in the official metrics but sit a bit of distance behind Fort Morgan (.654) and Palisade (.648).  The Tigers though have a trip to Durango on their schedule this week and a road upset there could create enough additional points to get them in the playoff field.  Such a win would draw attention from coaches plus they would get a nice boost in RPI due to playing and beating a quality opponent.  Conversely, Fort Morgan and Palisade are facing opponents with just two combined wins.

Now let’s look at the matchups starting with the Conifer-Evergreen showdown.  Both clubs enter maybe playing their best football of the season.  Conifer has won three straight being blanked by Green Mountain (31-0) in week two.  Evergreen stayed alive by thumping Green Mountain (48-7) last week.

Even riding a three-game winning streak, nothing has been easy for Conifer.  Those three wins are by a combined 25 points.  Last week, they led Palisade 14-0 but surrendered 14 unanswered points before getting two fourth quarter touchdown runs from Noah Wagner.  Wagner finished with 215 yards and two scores on the ground and also reached the end zone twice in the passing game.  The senior has 1,160 yards in five games and has been over 215 yards rushing in all four wins; including 836 and 10 scores over the last three.

Defense also played a major role as the Lobos limited Palisade to a season low 148 yards rushing and less than four yards an attempt.  Kenny Thompson had a team-best 11 tackles and Zach Zaifa picked up a fumble and intercepted a pass.

Evergreen ran for a whopping 411 yards in beating Green Mountain.  Noah Martens led the way with 228 yards and QB Griffin Lauritano was involved in six touchdowns.  He ran for 159 yards and three scores and connected with Carter Cassin on three touchdown passes.  Lauritano finished with 145 yards passing.

On the season, Martens has gained 653 yards on the ground including two games of at least 200 yards.  Lauritano has played in four games; throwing for 592 yards and 11 scores and adding another 275 yards and five scores in the run game.

Conifer won the Mountain Bowl last year (49-21) but Evergreen has wins in eight of the last ten.  Points have been easy to come by as the winner has scored at least 38 points in the last three games with each decision coming by at least 22 points.

Fort Morgan and Summit will both end long dry spells of not playing when they collide on Saturday.  The Mustangs last played on October 30th when they crushed Thompson Valley 60-14.  Due to COVID issues, they were not allowed to play Roosevelt last week and that may have hurt them a bit in the RPI standings.  Summit last stepped on the field on October 16th when they rolled 4A Thornton 56-23.  They’ve played just two games overall and are not playoff eligible.  QB Cameron Kalaf has still managed 547 yards passing and 227 rushing with 11 combined TD’s in those two games.  All eight TD passes have gone to Aidan Collins who is averaging nearly 28 yards per catch.

Palisade has dropped two of their last three including the tough loss to Conifer in week five.  A good schedule that also includes wins over Evergreen and Green Mountain keeps them in the playoff picture.  Gabe Harrison leads the running game with 408 yards and five TD’s.  Against Eagle Valley (1-2), the Bulldogs defense will focus on slowing down QB Will Geiman who tossed two TD’s to Anthony Vasquez in last week’s 14-8 victory over Frederick.  It was their first win of the season and the game this week will just their fourth of the campaign.

Canon City took a bit too long to get started and then ran out of time in last week’s 26-21 loss to Pueblo South.  The Tigers were down 20-0 midway through the second quarter before they made a dent on the scoreboard.  Canon ran for just eight yards overall but Lucas Walcott sparked the comeback with 142 yards and three touchdown passes.  Two of those TD’s went to Seth Newton and the third to Josh Rall.  To upset Durango, the Tigers must run the ball a bit better and be stronger on defense after giving up 440 total yards to South.

Durango took out Pueblo East 45-20 last week and now have scored 175 points in just four games (nearly 44 per game).  Jordan Woolverton and Ben Finnesmith each ran for two scores and the defense forced three turnovers in the win.  A win keeps the Demons in the discussion for the top overall seed as they’re in a battle with Roosevelt and Holy Family for that honor.

Regardless of the opponent, Pueblo South will hand the ball to George Longoria on a regular basis again this week.  He picked up 228 yards and scored three times against Canon City last week and how has 636 with eight TD’s in just three games.  Jace Bellah also connected on 1o of 14 pass attempts for 139 yards.  And as mentioned, the defense allowed just eight yards on the ground.  They did however surrender three touchdowns through the air and that could become more a factor if they line up against Vista Ridge and QB Brayden Dorman.  The sophomore has thrown for 1,529 yards and 21 TD’s in four games.

We also want to mention two more games between Green Mountain-Battle Mountain and Pueblo County-Pueblo East.  Should the weekend turn crazy with losses by Evergreen, Fort Morgan, Palisade and Canon City, then Pueblo County and Green Mountain suddenly become interested in the final seeding standings.  Green Mountain is #12 in the combined rankings from CHSAA and Pueblo County #13.  The Rams have lost two straight following a 3-0 start and have allowed 79 points over the last two weeks.  County ended a two-game slide by downing Pueblo Centennial 48-6 last week.  Chase Hartman ran for 225 yards and three TDs; Ethan Mauger found the end zone twice and totaled 187 yards.

None of the remaining playoff teams should get pushed much this week.  Mead is favored at Frederick, Roosevelt should get the win at Northridge and Lutheran is a heavy road favorite at Riverdale Ridge.  Holy Family looks to avoid a letdown following last week’s win over Lutheran as they host Pueblo Centennial.  Balance on offense was the key as the Tigers threw for 205 yards and ran for 203.  Trevin Johnson gained 112 yards with two TD’s on the ground and Michael White tossed scoring passes to Oscar Sena and Liam Gray.  Jacob Lawver also intercepted two passes to lead the defensive effort.

 

Numbers and standings below are from the official release of seeding metrics from CHSAA on Tuesday November 10th.  The numbers reflect vote totals from RPI, CHSAA, MaxPreps and Packard.

 

CLASS 3A RATING RECORD
1 Roosevelt 0.939 (4-0)
2 Holy Family 0.935 (5-0)
3 Durango 0.900 (4-0)
4 Mead 0.871 (4-1)
5 Lutheran 0.839 (4-1)
6 Pueblo South 0.834 (3-0)
7 Conifer 0.687 (4-1)
8 Fort Morgan 0.654 (3-1)
9 Palisade 0.648 (3-2)
10 Evergreen 0.634 (3-2)
11 Canon City 0.593 (3-1)
12 Green Mountain 0.561 (3-2)
13 Pueblo County 0.549 (3-2)
14 Discovery Canyon 0.543 (3-2)
15 Mountain View 0.515 (2-3)
16 Lewis Palmer 0.511 (3-2)