Much anticipation surrounding the Class 3A boys’ basketball state tournament pairings due out later today.  The past few years, the bracket was laid out basically by straight RPI and while the power rankings will be used quite a bit again, the committee has the ability to move teams up or down based on head-to-head wins, common opponents and previous district results.
Instead of producing a complete 32-team bracket, our focus this morning is on the top 16 seeds.  District champions, if they finish in the top 16 of RPI, are guaranteed a top eight seed and the right to host games this weekend.  Six of the seven district champs qualify for a top eight seed this year with the exception of DSST-Byers.  They’re 24th and will be in the bracket but will be on the road Friday.
Much discussion will center on the top eight seed as head-to-head results will come into play.  RPI standings this morning pus Sterling and Manual in the top two spots but we believe Lutheran will come of the committee talks as the number one seed.  The Lions have wins over both Manual and Sterling this year and that should be enough for them to get past the Thunderbolts and Tigers and into the top spot.
RPI would then put Sterling second and Manual third and we believe the committee will do that as well.  Vanguard should be in that discussion as well.  The Coursers are fourth in RPI but also unbeaten against Colorado teams and that second point could bump them to number two.  But because there is not head-to-head results or many common opponents involving Sterling, Manual and Vanguard, our thought is the committee will stay with RPI order.
Coal Ridge is ahead of Delta in RPI by quite a bit (5 spots) but we expect the Panthers to move ahead based on head-to-head results.  Delta has beaten the Titans twice this year.  That leaves Montezuma Cortez and DSST-Green Valley in seventh and eighth.
Kent Denver heads up the second nine as the Sun Devils barely missed out on catching Coal Ridge for the second at-large berth into the top eight and a chance to host this weekend.  The difference we believe was .000287 in RPI.  Still the Sun Devils are nine in our bracket.
The biggest discussion for the second nine could be Colorado Academy.  The Mustangs are 15th in RPI but could move up the seeding ladder due to wins over Platte Valley (14th) and Resurrection Christian (8th).  We expect them to push CA past Platte Valley but don’t think the committee will move the Mustangs that far up and ahead of Resurrection since the separation in RPI involves seven spots.
So here is our top 16 in 3A boys’ basketball:

  1. Lutheran
  2. Sterling
  3. Manual
  4. Vanguard
  5. Delta
  6. Coal Ridge
  7. Montezuma Cortez
  8. DSST-Stapleton
  9. Kent Denver
  10. Centauri
  11. Resurrection Christian
  12. Faith Christian
  13. Colorado Springs Christian
  14. Colorado Academy
  15. Platte Valley
  16. St Mary’s

The list of remaining qualifiers includes DSST-Green Valley.  They finished 41st in RPI but as the second place team from the Confluence district, the Raptors earn an automatic bid and will bump Manitou Springs from the field.  The Mustangs were 32 in RPI.

  • Roaring Fork
  • Alamosa
  • Gunnison
  • Lamar
  • Eaton
  • Grand Valley
  • University
  • DSST-Byers
  • La Junta
  • Pagosa Springs
  • Bayfield
  • Jefferson Academy
  • Academy
  • Strasburg
  • Frontier Academy
  • DSST-Green Valley