The eight man football regular season comes to a close this weekend and playoff brackets will be announced on Sunday.  But we’ll take another crack at laying out the bracket today and again Saturday night once all the games have become final.
For qualifying, league champions automatically get into the bracket and so far Fowler, Elbert, Vail Christian and Pikes Peak Christian have clinched their divisions.  Sedgwick County is the Plains champion by beating Merino on Friday while Sanford is also the Mountain champion if they get by Sargent this week.  Since Sedgwick County and Sanford are currently alone in first place, we will place them in the bracket as conference champions.
The rest of the bracket is determined by RPI so based on standings from October 31st, wildcard teams would be Dayspring Christian, Mancos, Merino, West Grand, Sargent, Rangely, Caliche, Holly, Dove Creek and Soroco.  Simla, Swink, Haxtun and Front Range Christian sit in spots 17 through 20 and still have a chance to get in but again we use RPI from Thursday to determine our field.
Now to place teams in the bracket, we’ve confirmed that league champions are placed on the seeding board for consideration first and then a top overall seed is selected.  Once that selection is made, the number two from the conference of the top overall seed is then placed on board with the remaining league champions and a number two seed is then picked.  That process continues until all 16 teams are placed in the bracket.  Once teams are placed, they can be moved for travel purposes or to avoid conference matchups in the first round.
With that criteria in mind, please note that Sedgwick County will be seeded higher than Dayspring Christian even if the Eagles finish higher in RPI.  That’s based on Sedgwick County beating Merino for the conference crown.  The same scenario takes place out west because #16 Soroco finished higher than #12 Rangely in the Northwest.  The Rams will be seeded higher as the Panthers do not get consideration until Soroco is off the board.  We also note that the teams could end up in different spots based on travel.
Travel is a concern right now and so is conference rematches in round one.  With Dove Creek, Soroco and Rangely near the lower end of our projected bracket, limiting travel could be difficult, especially if the committee completely wants to avoid conference rematches.
We have two projected brackets for consideration.  The first shapes up like this:

  • #1 Sedgwick County vs #16 Rangely
  • #8 Merino vs #9 West Grand
  • #4 Fowler vs #13 Caliche
  • #5 Dayspring Christian vs #12 Holly
  • #3 Sanford vs #14 Soroco
  • #6 Mancos vs #11 Elbert
  • #7 Pikes Peak Christian vs #10 Sargent
  • #2 Vail Christian vs #15 Dove Creek

This bracket is very good except for the major travel between Rangely and Sedgwick County in the 1-16 matchup.  Flipped Rangely with Dove Creek does not solve the issue as the Bulldogs would have even more travel plus it would create a Northwest conference rematch between Rangely and Vail Christian in the first round.  So we believe the committee would keep this bracket intact.
At the top, unbeaten conference champions are given the benefit over Dayspring Christian despite the Eagles being the current number one in RPI.  Vail Christian is also a spot ahead of Sedgwick County in RPI but we believe the committee would choose the four-time defending state champs as the number one overall seed.  The Cougars may actually move ahead of the Saints in the final RPI as they will get a nice boost in strength of schedule in playing Merino.  Vail Christian closes with Byers in a non-conference game.
Now if the committee uses RPI more heavily at the top, then the bracket could appear in this order.

  • #1 Vail Christian vs #16 Rangely
  • #8 Merino vs #9 West Grand
  • #4 Sanford vs #13 Holly
  • #5 Fowler vs #12 Caliche
  • #3 Dayspring Christian vs #14 Dove Creek
  • #6 Mancos vs #11 Elbert
  • #7 Pikes Peak Christian vs #10 Sargent
  • #2 Sedgwick County vs #15 Soroco

There are two and possibly three concerns with this bracket.  Vail Christian and Rangely would involve a conference rematch and then the trip for Dove Creek to Dayspring Christian is a major one.  Soroco’s visit to Sedgwick County is shorter than Rangely but still a relatively long haul for a first round game.
With those concerns in mind, we like our first bracket much more and think the committee will head that direction.  Some of the travel concerns could be alleviated if Simla or Swink move ahead of Dove Creek and Soroco for the final one or two spots.  That scenario would also benefit Rangely.  The Panthers are 12th in RPI and would not have to wait for Soroco to come off the board before being placed in the bracket.
Another factor involves Elbert.  The Bulldogs are a conference champion and if they climb into the Top 10 of RPI, they should get a home game in round one.  They would then likely move up to at least 8th in the bracket.
As mentioned before, we should get a closer look to final RPI standings on Saturday and then we can get compile one more set of projections before the official brackets are released on Sunday.