With the CHSAA coaches’ poll due out this morning and hopefully a Packard update sometime today, football fans will have a better idea of which teams remain in the playoff chase entering the final week of the regular season. But here at Colorado Preps, we want to get ahead of those numbers and present our playoff thoughts before they come out. PHOTO BY LANCE WENDT
We look at Classes 3A-4A-5A in this report and our projections change a bit from previous updates. We make our picks for teams that have already clinched post-season berths and also list the bubble teams in each division.
All teams in each class are listed in alphabetical order. When new numbers from CHSAA and Packard are released, we’ll also get a better feel for the seed placement. If all polls are updated, we’ll release our weekly consensus rankings later today.
CLASS 5A
Going into the final week, we believe there are six locks for teams that have already made the bracket.
- Cherry Creek
- Eaglecrest
- Fairview
- Legend
- Pomona
- Valor Christian
And there seem to be three clubs in the race for the final two berths.
- Regis
- Cherokee Trail
- Columbine
Of those three teams listed, Columbine is probably in the best shape. They’re 4-0 on the season and coming off a bye week where COVID prevented them from playing Ralston Valley. The Rebels we feel are in good shape for the bracket but a win over Pomona will easily secure their spot. Not playing could impact their standing in some of the polling metrics, but if they do play, they’re in good shape as the matchup improves their RPI. They’re currently #9. Regis controls their own future. The Raiders get in with a win over 4A defending state champion Pine Creek but a loss could open the door for Cherokee Trail. The Cougars (3-2) have won three straight and meet winless Overland in week six. They’re #8 in RPI but probably need a win and help from others to find their place in the playoffs.
Also want to mention Ralston Valley. The Mustangs fell short to Valor Christian last week and that result probably ended their playoff chances. Ralston was the scheduled opponent for Columbine in week five and once that game was cancelled, could have chosen not to play and would have likely stayed in the playoff chase. Instead, they opted for a game with Valor Christian despite the fact it could hurt their post season chances.
CLASS 4A
There are still six unbeaten teams in the division and seven others entering the final week with just one loss. So many quality teams are going to be left out of the playoffs in Class 4A. Five teams have likely earned their berth in the bracket.
- Palmer Ridge
- Dakota Ridge
- Fountain Fort Carson
- Ponderosa
- Broomfield
Ponderosa and Palmer Ridge were scheduled to play this week and that game would have had a major impact in seeding; maybe even decide the top overall seed. But it won’t be played as the Bears will pull away from the game due to COVID. They also missed their trip to Fruita Monument last week. Ponderosa will instead meet Longmont.
We have a long list of bubble teams this week and group includes a two-loss club in Montrose. The Indians have played a tremendous schedule and that keeps them in the chase at this point.
- Brighton
- Loveland
- Montrose
- Pine Creek
- Pueblo West
- Rampart
- Skyline
- Vista Ridge
- Windsor
Pine Creek should get into the bracket by beating 5A Regis but a loss drops the defending champs to 2-2 and squarely on the bubble. They are #12 in RPI following a one-point loss to 5A Legend. Should the Eagles fall short, the scenario to fill the remaining three playoff berths could be easy as there are three head-to-head matchups between others on the list. Skyline and Loveland are both 5-0 and tied for #13 in RPI and they play on Thursday. That winner should get in regardless as that team will be 6-0. Brighton and Windsor are both 4-1 and each has a loss to Broomfield on their resume. Brighton is ranked #7 in RPI and Windsor #11. Rampart also meets Pueblo West. The Rams are 4-1 and coming off a huge win over Fountain Fort Carson that kept their hopes alive. Pueblo West lost to Fountain Fort Carson two weeks ago and did not have a key game with Vista Ridge last week. Both clubs get a ton of respect in RPI with Pueblo West #6 and Rampart #8.
Vista Ridge and Montrose may have the most difficult route to the bracket. Vista Ridge is all the way up to #2 in RPI but do not get as much respect in the other seeding polls. In fact, they’re not included in the MaxPreps top 10. Their RPI will also get hurt a bit in week six as they meet Air Academy (1-4). Montrose has two quality losses to Palmer Ridge and Ponderosa and that may be too much to overcome. They’re #10 in RPI but are still #5 in MaxPreps.
CLASS 3A
Six of the eight available playoff berths may be spoken for. Four of the six clubs are unbeaten through five weeks and the other two have a single loss; against other clubs on the list. Lutheran fell to Holy Family last week and Mead lost to Roosevelt by one point in overtime in week two.
- Durango
- Holy Family
- Lutheran
- Mead
- Pueblo South
- Roosevelt
The seventh position should be determined by the Mountain Bowl between Conifer (4-1) and Evergreen (3-2) this Friday. Both teams are coming off important wins over the weekend as the Lobos stunned Palisade and the Cougars dumped Green Mountain. Conifer is #4 in RPI and could still get in with a loss but that will be difficult for Evergreen as coming up short would leave them at 3-3. The Cougars are #9 in RPI.
That leaves a few teams in the running for the final playoff position.
- Canon City
- Fort Morgan
- Green Mountain
- Palisade
- Pueblo County
Maybe the two best options of the bunch are Palisade and Canon City. Palisade is #6 in RPI and will be favored to win their final game with Eagle Valley. Canon City is #11 in RPI but they face Durango and a win over the Demons should be enough for the Tigers to get in. Green Mountain (#10), Pueblo County (#12) and Fort Morgan (#13) need wins and likely some help from others to break into the bracket.
