1A GIRLS REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

Last week, Colorado Preps unveiled a new weekly series projecting the post-season in Classes 1A, 2A and 3A and we pick up the project with 1A Girls Basketball this week.  There is some slight movement in our projections from last week based on results from the past seven days.
 

REGION ONE

This tournament again pairs the top two teams from Districts 1 and 8 in a cross bracket to determine two state tournament berths.  Our pairings remain the same as teams involved did not move up or down this past week.
North Park continues to be our choice as the District 1 champion and the Wildcats could stay in that position throughout the season.  They have a head-to-head win over DeBeque and the Dragons also have a win over Dove Creek to stay ahead of the Bulldogs.  Ouray is closing in on the five hundred mark overall but included on their resume is a loss to Dove Creek so they sit fourth in the district at this point.
Front Range Baptist and Belleview Christian continue in slots one and two for District 8.  Belleview Christian has three more wins overall than Belleview, but the edge remains with the Lions based on a stronger schedule.  Cornerstone sits third again this week.
So, the pairings remain in the same in projecting the regional bracket

#1 North Park vs #2 Belleview Christian

#1 Front Range Baptist vs #2 DeBeque

 

REGION TWO

The top three teams from Districts 4, 5 and 7 advance to the regional tournament.  In the regional bracket, the top three clubs earn first round byes while the remaining six square off in first round elimination games.
Probably the most important result last week came on Saturday as Genoa Hugo collected their first win of the season in beating Arickaree/Woodlin 36-33.  Heather Graham was back on the court for Genoa Hugo and her return plus a very strong schedule dominated by 2A opponents likely moves the Pirates into the top spot of District 7.
The Pirates are only 1-8 on the season but we jumped them ahead of Kiowa and Elbert in District 7.  The Indians fall to #2 and the Bulldogs are now #3.
Despite that result, we leave Arickaree/Woodlin slightly ahead of Idalia in District 5.  Even though Idalia has beaten Genoa Hugo twice, the Wolves have a loss to Arickaree/Woodlin head-to-head and that matters most in our projections.  Otis stays put at #3 in District 5 at this point ahead of Flagler/Hi Plains.
District 4 is unchanged this week as Fleming is #1 with Briggsdale #2 and Heritage Christian #3.  The Eagles fell to 7-2 with a loss to 2A Denver Christian but they remain ahead of Weldon valley and Prairie in our rankings this week.  Weldon Valley also holds a slight edge over Prairie for the fourth spot as they beat the Mustangs in December.  Game two in the series is January 27th.
Using that information, our order of seed for the regional bracket looks like this:

#1 Fleming

#2 Briggsdale

#3 Heritage Christian

#4 Genoa Hugo

#5 Arickaree/Woodlin

#6 Idalia

#7 Otis

#8 Kiowa

#9 Elbert

If the seeds hold true, then the regional bracket would line up in this manner.  Please note that Otis would be dropped from seventh to ninth overall to avoid conference matchups in the opening round.  Kiowa and Elbert would each be bumped one position.

#4 Genoa Hugo vs #9 Otis (winner plays #3 Heritage Christian)

#5 Arickaree/Woodlin vs #8 Elbert (winner plays #2 Briggsdale)

#6 Idalia vs #7 Kiowa (winner plays #1 Fleming)

 

REGION THREE

The top three teams from Districts 2, 3 and 6 advance to the regional tournament.  In the regional bracket, the top three clubs earn first round byes while the remaining six square off in first round elimination games.
McClave picked up a very important win over Kim/Branson last week (36-29) and that helped the Cardinals solidify their hold at #2 in District 2.  They likely will fall behind Kit Carson the entire season as the defending state champion Wildcats should hold down the #1 district, regional and state tournament seed if they keep winning as expected.
Eads remains as our third choice in District 3.  They beat Idalia and Otis last week and improved to 6-2 overall. Cheraw is close behind the Eagles and will get a chance to move past them with a head-to-head battle later this season.  The Wolverines hold onto the fourth spot because of their win over Cheyenne Wells.
In District 3, Kim/Branson remains the top choice there but that could change when they meet Holly on the 27th.  The Mustangs can’t look to that meeting just yet as they face difficult battles with Cheraw and Sangre De Cristo this week.  The Saturday showdown with Sangre De Cristo will be important as it could help determine the second and third regional seeds.  Holly sits at 8-2 on the season and challenges Kit Carson this week before playing crucial seeding games with Springfield and Kim/Branson next week.
Springfield remains third in District 3 but Wiley takes over the fourth spot after beating South Baca (53-43) last week.
Sangre De Cristo is unbeaten on the season and with Kim/Branson’s loss, we moved the T-Birds to the number two overall regional seed.  Their meeting with Kim/Branson on Saturday will be their third game in three nights and with only six players in uniform, fatigue could be an issue.
Antonito and La Veta are two-three in District 6 and will continue pushing Sangre De Cristo is a deep bracket.  The Trojans and Redskins collide on Saturday, so their order could also change based on that outcome.  For La Veta, the matchup is their only one of the week while Antonito must visit Sierra Grande the night before.
Our seeds for the regional bracket now look like this.  McClave did not get a chance to move up as they still have a loss to Springfield as well.

#1 Kit Carson

#2 Sangre De Cristo

#3 Kim/Branson

#4 Antonito

#5 Holly

#6 Springfield

#7 McClave

#8 La Veta

#9 Eads

Pairings would then shape up in this format.

#4 Antonito vs #9 Eads (winner plays #3 Kim/Branson)

#5 Holly vs #8 La Veta (winner plays #2 Sangre De Cristo)

#6 Springfield vs #7 McClave (winner plays #1 Kit Carson)

 

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